Hat Trick Unpredictable Episode 2 Full of Dry Goods💣

Continued from the previous episode, please watch patiently

After understanding the prerequisites mentioned above, let's take a look at the entire calculation and application process through two examples. Suppose there are two different strategies. After counting the orders in the historical data, we get the data of the two strategies. The probability of profit for strategy 1 is 55%, and the probability of loss is 45%. The overall profit and loss ratio is 0.7, that is, the odds are 0.7. The probability of profit for strategy 2 is 40%, and the probability of loss is 60%. The overall profit and loss ratio is 2.2. If the corresponding opportunities appear for these two strategies, how much should be betted? First, Strategy 1 calculates the betting ratio. The odds are 0.7 multiplied by the probability of profit 55% minus the probability of loss 45%, and then divided by the odds 0.7, and the result is negative 0.09. The result is a negative number. How much should be invested? When the result of the investment ratio calculation is negative, it means that the expected value of the overall data of this strategy is negative, and this strategy cannot be profitable in the long run. It is the best choice not to bet on such a strategy. Then, we use strategy 2 to calculate the betting ratio. The odds of 2.2 are multiplied by the probability of profit of 40% minus the probability of loss of 60%, and then divided by the odds of 2.2, which gives 12.7%. In other words, the most reasonable ratio for a single bet under this strategy is 12.7%. Assuming that the current account has 200,000, if an opportunity that meets strategy 2 appears on the styrene contract, the entry position is 9030, and the stop loss position is 8930, how many hands should be placed? First, calculate the amount that can be lost based on the Kelly formula. Does it mean that if I have 200,000 in my account, and then calculate the Kelly formula to get 12.7%, I can lose 25,400 in one transaction? #美国4月CPI数据回落 #PEPE创历史新高 #GameStop带动Meme板块 #Meme币你看好哪一个？ #新币挖矿