Currently, there are two views on Bitcoin. One group says that Bitcoin is a risky asset, and the other group says that it is a safe-haven asset. Risky assets are like Nvidia, or like technology stocks.
In times of turmoil, these technology stocks will plummet, while safe-haven assets like gold will rise in times of turmoil. Well, there are both opinions, so which one is it? According to the current market performance, as the world's geopolitical risks intensify. Gold continues to rise, while Bitcoin has not risen. Therefore, the general consensus in the market is still to regard Bitcoin as a risky asset. From this perspective, Bitcoin should not be bought in times of turmoil, but I have a different opinion. When we study an asset,
It can be divided into external market consensus and intrinsic value essence. Market consensus determines its current price, while intrinsic value determines its future outcome. For example, gold. I wrote many articles a few years ago, talking about whether the safe-haven property of gold is a market consensus.
Or does it really have a hedging effect in nature? I have reviewed the trend of gold during local wars in the past 30 years and found that the rise of gold is often completed before the unrest. If you buy gold when the unrest starts and hold it until the unrest ends,
In fact, you will lose money in this range, because the safe-haven function of gold mainly comes from market expectations, but if there is a real turmoil, no one will really hoard gold bars for risk hedging, you know, and Bitcoin is designed to end the legal currency system from the bottom up.
It is a borderless foundation of value. In my article last year, I compared Bitcoin and gold a long time ago. Bitcoin is better than gold in value storage. We can also use more practical examples to do a little thought experiment.
Suppose you are a second-generation criminal in Russia, and you expect that there will be huge geopolitical risks in Russia next year, so you sell your assets in Russia in advance.
Now you have 1 billion dollars in cash, and you plan to take this money to a neutral country in Europe. How do you plan to take your wealth with you? If you plan to exchange 1 billion dollars for gold bars, which is equivalent to 15 tons of gold, how can you take these 15 tons of gold with you? Taking away 1 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin is as easy as taking away your QQ account.
Not only can no one take your money, no one even knows you have so much money. Of course, this is just one example. There are many more examples. I have written about them in my previous articles. Due to space limitations, I will not go into details here. So let's get back to our topic.
If we divide assets into external market consensus and intrinsic value essence, then the market consensus of gold is that it can be used as a hedge, but in essence, the safe-haven property of gold in 2024 is already very poor, and the market consensus of Bitcoin is now a risky asset,
But in essence, Bitcoin is the safest safe-haven asset in the world, no doubt about it. So the safe-haven property of Bitcoin needs to be discovered by the market, and when can the market discover it? Usually you can't see the safe-haven property of Bitcoin, because uh,
There is no danger to avoid, but once a global crisis really breaks out, sooner or later, people who really need to avoid risks will find that Bitcoin is really good. Therefore, I think that a world-class turmoil will greatly accelerate the process of Bitcoin surpassing gold. It can even be said that a world-class turmoil can establish Bitcoin's position as the world's first value store. So can you buy Bitcoin in troubled times? The answer is self-evident. I will continue to update the content of web3. Friends who are interested can stay tuned.
