Will there be another black swan-style crash?
Many people are expecting that with the continued high interest rates of the Federal Reserve, there will be an economic and financial black swan event, which will trigger a big crash in the currency circle.
From a historical perspective, this is indeed the case: the US subprime mortgage crisis, the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and the Internet bubble in the past two decades are all living examples.
Many crises also broke out in the year or so when the Federal Reserve's interest rates continued to rise. This time, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.5 on July 27 last year, it has remained at a high point of 5.5 for 10 months, and no similar financial crisis has occurred so far.
An important purpose of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is to complete the harvest of the world. How can it harvest without a crisis?
The reasons for supporting the non-rate cuts such as the rebound in the US CPI and the strong non-agricultural data are all pretexts. In the final analysis, the United States printed 20 trillion US dollars during the epidemic, which is the sum of the past 20 years.
Although inflation has been passed on to the world through the status of the US dollar as a global currency. However, if so many US dollars do not complete asset harvesting and make the extra US dollars valuable, the US dollar system will collapse.
Therefore, the probability of a black swan event of a financial crisis in the real economy is very high. This can "force" the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and the dollar will flow out to harvest the crisis-ridden economies, completing the closed loop of interest rate hikes and cuts. The world has liquidity, and the cryptocurrency market has a bull market, because in the final analysis, the cryptocurrency market is still a product of sufficient liquidity.
Having said so much, in fact, there is only one sentence to continue, be patient.
This is the dark forest of the cryptocurrency circle: if you lose your patience and move around, you will be the prey to be eaten. Only by being patient can you become a hunter who eats meat.
