The market continued to fall over the weekend. In fact, this trend was predictable. After all, there was a large outflow of funds from ETFs again on Friday night, which was a huge blow to the market over the weekend.
However, what is more frightening than the market decline is that the altcoin market can no longer keep pace with Bitcoin. The most typical phenomenon is that it follows the decline but not the rise, and Bitcoin is sucking the blood of the altcoins. In fact, this phenomenon occurred last week, but due to the existence of the meme sector, it was more or less ignored by everyone. This weekend, memes also experienced a sharp correction, which lifted the last fig leaf of the market.
Only then did we clearly realize that no matter whether it is the annoying high-FDV VC new coins, the various old coins that have changed tracks, or the runes and Bitcoin L2 that were hyped before the halving, they cannot get out of the counter-trend under the background of insufficient incremental funds in the market and too many macro uncertainties. The main driving force of this bull market is only the huge amount of incremental funds brought by the Bitcoin spot ETF. When the over-the-counter buying of the ETF stagnates, the upward momentum of the market naturally disappears.
The previous excess gains of various altcoin sectors will naturally have to be given back, which is also the main reason why altcoins have not been able to keep up with the market recently. We have always emphasized that even in a bull market, we must reasonably arrange our positions. I think all Bitcoin positions below 80% are unreasonable or even aggressive. Looking at the big whales in the currency market, they actually only did one thing right, which is to successfully cross several cycles. The secret to crossing the cycle is actually to hold a large position in Bitcoin and not move it. Therefore, with the return of the bull market in the future, we must insist on adjusting our altcoin positions to Bitcoin or other more mainstream and stable assets.
Then let's talk about the events that need to be paid attention to in the macroeconomics this week. The first one is definitely the CPI data on Wednesday. The market's expectations for CPI are still relatively good. The expected value of core CPI is 3.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous value of 3.8%, and the broad CPI is 3.4%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous value of 3.5%. In addition, major institutions have also given bad news to this CPI. For example, Morgan Stanley predicts that the CPI on Wednesday will be significantly lower than expected, because the market rent has declined significantly, and housing inflation has released a downward signal. Nick, the mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve, also said that rent is the key data for the next interest rate cut. If interest rates are to be cut, then the housing inflation rate must be reduced from the current 5.8% to around 3.5%.
Another macro event that needs attention is the special tariffs that Biden will announce on Tuesday. This may be a new round of Sino-US trade war, which will have a great impact on global risk assets. Finally, there is the conflict between Israel and Kazakhstan. Israel has warned residents to evacuate Rafah. At the same time, Israel’s bombing has begun, and the United States has strongly condemned it. Blinken said that Israel’s attack on Rafah will not be able to wipe out Hamas, and Rafah in a state of anarchy will be more chaotic. In short, this war will last for a long time, which is also not good for the current currency market.
Finally, let’s talk about the latest developments of hot projects:
1. ionet announced the latest points calculation. Everyone’s points have generally increased, but there is a trick here. It is said that the witch’s points of the big players have been compensated, while the total amount of airdrop tokens remains unchanged. In order to prevent everyone from finding that their tokens have been diluted, the project party has adopted a strategy of expanding points for everyone. However, the expansion multiples of each person are different, which is a disguised dilution of everyone’s airdrop.
2. The OpenAI conference will be held at 1 a.m. on May 14, the Google I/O conference will be held on May 15, and the Microsoft Developer Conference will be held on May 21. In the next few days,#AIwill be the focus of the global technology and investment communities, with a focus on projects such as $rndr $fet $tao $wld and so on.
3. $STRK $AEVO $ARB Tokens worth approximately $1.4 billion will be unlocked this week, of which $AEVO will unlock $1 billion of tokens on May 15th.
4. Currently, 80% of the Bitcoin mining machines on the market are considering shutting down, and the electricity costs of the main mining machine Ant S19 account for nearly 70%.
5. OKX Web3 wallet has fully supported the Runes asset batch purchase function.
6. Ethereum has an on-chain loan liquidation quota of approximately US$48.05 million around US$2,778
7. Ripple CEO: The next target of US regulation will be the stablecoin company Tether
8. Grayscale GBTC’s cumulative net outflow exceeded US$17.6 billion, and its asset management scale dropped to US$17.647 billion
9. The total market value of stablecoins fell below $160 billion, with a weekly decline of 0.25%
10. LayerZero is making a show of giving all witch users a chance to surrender themselves. Those who surrender within 14 days can get 15% of the expected reward. It is said that 30,000 people have surrendered themselves. However, it is said that the surrender will also be announced, and the subsequent $zks airdrop may not be available, so it is better to seek wealth and honor in danger.
11. The on-chain proxy machine intelligence network Spectral_Labs took off again today, and the price broke through $11 again.
12.#eigenlayerBrother Sun won big. Brother Sun linked 4 addresses and received a total of 3.62 million $eigen airdrops.
13. The $slerf team launched a new meme project $cuff on pump. The highest profit at the beginning was nearly 200 times, and those who entered the market in the middle could easily make 10 times.
Market Analysis of BTC:
The market continues to fluctuate and adjust, Bitcoin falls slightly, and the altcoin collapses. Bitcoin rises slightly, and the altcoin collapses. The current market has entered a mode of not accepting orders. The first reason is the cycle. We are currently entering a market adjustment cycle. During the adjustment cycle, everyone should be mentally prepared. The second reason is that the market value of the altcoin is too high, and the market cannot continue to accept high-valuation orders, so it has to adjust and repair by falling. When the market adjustment is over, both mainstream and altcoins will re-enter the hype mode. However, if there is no new gameplay at that time, it will be difficult for the market to continue, and there will be a bull market of 3 months at most. Therefore, it is judged that everyone must take action during the crazy process in the fourth quarter.
ETH: ETH/BTC continued to fall to around 0.047. Ethereum is very weak. The on-chain gas once fell to 2, and there are still a large number of loans to be liquidated around 2778. In addition, there are still 10 days until the Judgment Day on May 23, so the probability of continued price and exchange rate decline in the near future is quite high.
#Meme币你看好哪一个？ #山寨币热点 $BTC $BNB
It’s a bull market right now, and things are surging. We have the opportunity to share passwords every day.
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