Bitcoin spent the last 24 hours in the range of 60610-61888. At the time of writing the Review, it is trading below 61K.
Market capitalization 2.17 trillion, dominance index 55.22%, fear index 57.
Stock markets opened neutral. Bond yields, the dollar index and S&P 500 futures do not show significant movements; Asian indices are trading in different directions.
The lack of certainty is not surprising. There is a lot of important economic data coming out this week that will impact all financial markets.
Today - data on inflation expectations in the USA (18-00 Moscow time)
Tomorrow - industrial inflation in the US (PPI), and even Powell's speech.
May 15 - consumer inflation (CPI)
May 16 - US labor market data
It is strange that data on industrial inflation comes out before data on consumer inflation. It was always the other way around. There is good ground for manipulation.
Objectively, inflation should rise, and this is bad for markets. But what is important is not what inflation actually is, but how it will be calculated. Therefore, there is a chance for good data and market growth.
According to polls, 80% of US voters see rising prices as their biggest problem. Therefore, the inflation data that will be released in the months remaining before the elections is no longer so much an economic as a political instrument. This means manipulation is inevitable.
Bitcoin moved according to the forecast. Now close to the lower limit of the range. Intermediate support at 60600 is still working, but they are not buying back much. It looks like everyone wanting to buy at these levels has already done so, and there won't be any significant moves until the economic data comes out.
But draining alts is a negative thing. Ethereum went below 2900, the dominance index is again above 55%. Of the alts, only Core grew over the course of the day, while the leaders in decline were IMX, W, and Pendle.
Alts draining = increasing fear in the market. This is good.
Ether may also be drained due to expectations of SEC refusal on ETH-ETF.
Since the regulator does not conduct consultations with potential issuers, as was the case with BTC-ETF.
If Bitcoin loses intermediate support at 60600, the next support is at 58600. Then the area is 56000-55000, then 52000-50000 (this is not particularly likely).
For growth it is necessary to overcome the resistance areas at 63000-63500 and at 65000-65500
I think that the inflation data coming out this week will send the main cryptocurrency either to 55K or to 65000-65500. The probability of these events is approximately the same. But the main thing is different.
Wherever we go this week, in the near future we will take 65K, 70K, and make a new ATH. Probability 98.8%,
But whether Bitcoin will go to 55K is a big question. If it does, it won't be for long.
Therefore, the recipe for success is clear - hold Bitcoin, get it when it drains, and remember that Bitcoin does its main growth in 10 days a year. And there is no other way to catch these 10 days other than to always have Bitcoin.
Remember - success in the crypto market is 20% brains and 80% eggs).
The priority option for today is Bitcoin in the range with the lower limit at 59000-58600 and the upper limit at 63000-63500
Alternative - fixation below 58600
#Bitcoin #
