Judging from the current distribution of BTC chips, more chips are concentrated around $30,000, which has exceeded 1 million BTC. This is much higher than the 870,000 stocks at $16,500 and the 710,000 stocks at $3,500. Although historical data shows that high accumulations may eventually lead to a sharp rise due to the reduction of selling pressure, repeated fluctuations or even sharp declines before the sharp rise will also be accompanied by

To put it bluntly, when a large amount of BTC with a single price accumulates, because the chips are too concentrated, once negative emotions appear, it will trigger a large-scale selling pressure, causing the price to fall. But relatively speaking, it is also because the chips are too concentrated that a strong bottom consensus will be formed. As long as the price does not fall too sharply, more chips will not be sold, and the energy required to pull the market will be lower.

I still stick to my previous view that the cyclical factors affecting the crypto market will maintain a relatively strong equilibrium in the second half of July, and the market will most likely fluctuate upward. You can actively pursue popular narratives, or adopt a neutral strategy like me to reap the volatility dividend.

Continue to follow the following narrative

Cancun Upgrade

ON

The Cancun upgrade is coming soon. Coinbase's Base will launch the mainnet for developers and plans to launch it publicly in early August, built on OP. The CB stock price has been very strong recently, so you all understand.

arb

The price and fundamentals of Arb have been recognized by most people over time. Unless the fundamentals change and cause the market's perception to deviate, Arb will not rise sharply in the short term.

Judgment on the next market situation:

Two features:

1. If you look at the top of the growth list, you will see that there are obvious signs of copycats rising together;

2. Bitcoin has not been able to effectively break through the previous high of the year for the time being.

One hidden worry: There is a high probability that interest rates will be raised again at the end of July. Therefore, if there is no obvious substantial positive news in the near future, such as the direct approval of ETFs, the direct suspension of interest rate hikes, or the regulatory cases of Binance and COINBASE ending with the victory of the exchanges.

There is no positive news for a certain sector, such as the direct determination of the time for the Cancun upgrade, or the sudden revolutionary innovation narrative of a certain sector. Then the characteristics of the market entering a stage top are very obvious.

2. Reiterate the market analysis.

The current market logic has shifted from the funding drive of old coins to SEC supervision, the delay or decline of US recession expectations, and the fundamental drive of ETFs. Whether the market logic has changed needs to focus on the previous high point of the big pie this year. If it breaks through effectively, we should follow the trend and lay out this fake bull market. If it fails to break through, it should still be the bull tail market of the old coin market, and the XRP issue is just a delay.

3.L2 pull up

The L2 sector rose sharply, without any event-driven, only an article about the Cancun upgrade. In addition, I specifically checked the trend of ETH gas fees in the past few days, and it did not rise. The overall rise was a bit strange, but it soon retreated a lot. In addition, I looked at the unlocking of OP and ARB, and there will be a large amount of unlocking in half a month. So the crypto circle is sometimes more excited, and many risk events in traditional finance can be ignored in the crypto circle, which is magical.

Staking: SSV

Although the Shanghai upgrade has been completed and the pledge track has basically landed, I think this is a track that will continue to develop. The reason is that the Ethereum that is currently pledged only accounts for less than 17% of its total. We can see from the figure below that the general public chain pledge rate is around 50%, and Ethereum is still far behind. Moreover, Ethereum is the largest public chain in the ecosystem. From POW to POS, more pledges are definitely needed to maintain the security of the network, so I think the development of this area is continuous.

Why choose SSV? It is DVT technology, which maintains the security of the entire pledge service and users. It is an absolute necessity for the current pledge. The current market value is only 220 million US dollars, and there is still a lot of room for improvement. In the expected upgrade of Shanghai this year, its performance will be better. Another point is that in this wave of rise, the dealer has already sold a lot of goods, which may be a good thing for the future.

However, the short-term impact of SSV will not be significant, so long-term players can consider it.

In what form will the bull market come?

My expectation for the price of Bitcoin in 2023 is 25K-50K. I have always said that the reasonable valuation of Bitcoin should be 40K. 30K USD is just the starting price, and the reasonable price in 2024 is 40-100K.

I know that many people still don’t have any positions.

They are all waiting for a golden opportunity, such as 519 312 9.4, a day like this, a day of discount when the stock price plummets by 30%-50%.

I don’t know if there will be days like this in the future, but of course I hope there will be. I hope Bitcoin can repeat history and create a “valley of despair” before the big rise.

At least people with confidence have one last chance to get on board before the bull market. Before the bull market, you have experienced great terror, which is to test whether you are worthy of this asset. There are many ways to test whether you are sincere. The market uses temptation, intimidation, and boring waiting to test your sincerity. Whether you can survive it depends on your sincerity.

Sometimes, your sincerity is the source of your wealth, so sincerity is particularly important.

If you don't have it, then you don't have it.

And the big pie is indifferent to this. It is completely oblivious to the slander, abuse, ridicule, fear, praise, admiration, cherishment, and joy. It keeps ticking forward, producing a block every 600 seconds, and it has been the same for 10 years. It has witnessed a history from nothing to something. The only thing ordinary people like me can do is to buy and hold on. How lucky to be born at the right time.

You can make predictions, but you can never believe in them. The financial market is constantly making predictions and is constantly changing, so you need to develop a dialectical approach to looking at things.

Such a deep pit came once in 2017, scaring off a wave of short-term speculators. In 2020, there was another wave that buried countless contract masters in the valley. Some left the cryptocurrency circle in tears, some were forced to make money off-market again, and some left this world forever and went to heaven.

The capital market is real and fake. You will not be sympathized with just because you are weak. Ruthless capital is like a lawn mower. Wherever it goes, no grass will grow. The rules of the currency circle will come again and again to test whether you are qualified to hold your assets. If you don’t have the ability to make it grow continuously, your assets will be blown away by the strong wind. Strong or small winds often cannot keep them. But if you have them, other assets will become your soldiers, constantly joining you and making you stronger. You can be the tornado that sweeps away other people’s assets. Who told you that your wind is stronger?

The story of the boy who cried wolf is certainly effective. If the wolf comes, there will definitely be a crash, because human nature remains unchanged. Even if you have made all the preparations, you will still panic. You will need to repeat over and over again the countless days and nights before: I will buy in fear, I will buy in fear.

You see, the highest price that Bored Ape had boasted before was 200 sesame cakes per piece, but now no one is buying 34 sesame cakes. The boss is also a human being, and he also has fear in his heart.

There was no such thing in 2013-2015. It has been rising slowly. Maybe the big dealers haven't taken a fancy to it yet, so they are too lazy to make up stories to compete with you for chips. No one knows which year's story will be played out in 2024.

The essence of the arrival of the bull market is the influx of huge amounts of funds. Not only old funds will enter the market, but also a large amount of new funds.

New funds like new stories of getting rich quickly. When the time comes, as long as you hear a brand new narrative, as long as there is a story about making a certain amount of money in a few days, doubling it in a few days, and it is as easy as picking up gold in a dream, when this kind of story comes out, then the new bull market will officially begin.

This time, the unprecedented hardness of bitcoin has surpassed that of gold. Where will it go? No one knows.

I just hope that each of you has a seemingly useless but golden pie in your hands.

Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.