If this wave falls below 6W to 5W3, please don't be afraid

To encourage those who are confident in the future market: the road ahead may be full of thorns, difficulties and doubts will follow, and sometimes even make people feel desperate. But please don't be discouraged, because hope has not disappeared, they are still shining ahead!

Let's take a look at the current situation: there is a lot of debt to be repaid in the market, but the Federal Reserve dare not print money easily. This will lead to an increase in long-term bond interest rates, and many risk funds will be affected. The People's Bank of China also needs to maintain the stability of the RMB, so it has to follow the Fed's pace and slow down the pace of printing money. Since both major countries are doing this, how can the market continue to rise?

Next, let's look to the future: Issuing treasury bonds is like embarking on a never-ending road, and eventually having to rely on printing money to solve the problem. Japan has already done this, Europe and China are also moving in this direction, and the United States will eventually go the same way. After the epidemic, the United States began to follow China's practice in 2008 and invested heavily, such as in the field of artificial intelligence, similar to China's infrastructure projects, and increased government spending. At first, everything seemed to be very profitable and exciting. However, once you rely on government investment, debt will continue to accumulate and eventually you will inevitably fall into a debt crisis, as happened in Indonesia, Thailand, Argentina, and Mexico. Although such problems have not yet erupted in China and the United States, the crisis is imminent. China relies on foreign exchange controls and dependence on US demand, while the United States relies on the dominance of the US dollar. However, the economy has its own laws, and debt will only continue to grow. Unless the investment returns are extremely high, as in China's reform and opening-up period, or there are major changes like the technological revolution, there are only two outcomes: either cut spending, leading to economic recession and slowing growth, thus forming a vicious cycle and eventually negative growth; or continue to print money, but this will lead to the collapse of the monetary system, as Argentina has shown. Japan and China are currently running on this road of no return.

The Federal Reserve is currently under great pressure because the US dollar is the backbone of the global economy. Therefore, even if it gets into trouble, it is unlikely to collapse the monetary system.However, we may face a difficult period in the future, either due to rising interest rates caused by excessive debt or reduced spending after Trump took office. Risk assets such as Bitcoin may also be hit. But no matter what happens, the Fed may eventually relax its policy, and then we may usher in a real "crazy bull market".

On the occasion of Mother's Day, I wish all mothers a happy holiday! #BTC