5.11 Market Analysis
Four major events last night, three negatives:
(1) Fed’s Logan said that inflation has significant upside risks and it is too early to consider rate cuts, negative
(2) US May one-year inflation rate is expected to be 3.2%, the published value of 3.5% is higher than expected, negative for the cryptocurrency market
(3) US May Consumer Confidence Index, expected to be 76, published 67.4, positive
(4) Israel’s Security Cabinet voted to approve the expansion of operations in Rafah, negative
There are four scenarios in the future, all of which are determined by the peace talks between Israel and Hamas and the CPI data next Wednesday
(1) Successful peace talks + CPI lower than expected: probability 10%
BTC soars back to $70,000
(2) Failed peace talks + CPI lower than expected: probability 35%
A sharp drop in the failure of peace talks, a rebound in the CPI lower than expected, BTC fluctuates around $60,000, but the copycat bleeds and is injured
(3) Successful negotiation + CPI higher than expected: probability 35%
In this case, successful negotiation is not a positive, it can only be said that the market will not fall.
(4) Failed negotiation + CPI higher than expected: probability 20%
Both are negative, the market has not recovered yet.
OpenAI will hold a press conference next Monday. If WLD rises sharply, remember to sell it first. If all the positive news is out, it will be negative. Buy it back if it falls later.
