The United States is manipulating data, and the data is combined with hawkish speeches. The U.S. stock market and the crypto market are forced to fall in the short term!
Hi, girls and boys, welcome to Uncle Cat’s crypto world.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at around 60,900. Recently, the US stock market has seen a good increase due to the market's optimistic expectations of a rate cut in the United States. Bitcoin has also risen again and reached a key position on the daily chart.
However, the US data released tonight was mixed, and combined with the speeches of Fed officials, it directly led to a sharp decline in US stocks and Bitcoin in the short term. The US data manipulates market expectations and adjusts market dynamics. We will have to endure a lot of torture in the future.
Can Bitcoin slowly break away from the influence of data games?
Bitcoin market situation:
Bitcoin rebounded again during the decline and has now reached the key resistance position of the daily Bollinger Band middle line. I have mentioned this position many times. It determines the short-term daily price trend and market sentiment.
Currently, the position is fine-tuned to around 63,200.
After the daily Bollinger Band midline breaks through, Bitcoin price will face two strong resistance levels in the short term.
65,700, this position is the daily EMA30, the 3-day Bollinger Band middle line, and the weekly EMA7. The three indicators are concentrated near this position, which will bring greater resistance to the short-term price rebound.
On the upper side is the monthly Bollinger Band resistance at 67,200. If this position is broken, the key resistance level will become a strong support level, and the price will once again start to have a strong bullish sentiment in the short term.
Although the current Bitcoin price is not far from the key resistance position above and seems to be easier to break through, the same thing applies: every breakthrough, in addition to the price rebound, can only be effectively broken through with the support of market sentiment and data. After the breakthrough, the market must rely on the continuation of sentiment and the support of data trading volume to maintain price stability and consolidation and volatility.
Now that the price of Bitcoin has reached a critical position on the daily chart, let’s take a look at the market data and whether the funds support a further breakthrough! ?
Let the data speak: trading volume increased slightly, funds flowed out again, and the market sentiment in the future is not optimistic!
During the statistical period, the price of Bitcoin fell again in the short term. The main sentiment tonight still depends on the power of the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, which may cause fluctuations in the early morning.
For Bitcoin, as I said at the beginning of today’s update, although the price has rebounded, breaking through key positions still depends on good market sentiment and data funding support.
According to today’s data, the altcoins have seen a significant increase in market value, outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin is making steady progress, while Ethereum is a bit weak. We got the result of the altcoins’ rebound from the data the day before yesterday.
In terms of trading volume, compared with yesterday, the data also showed a small increase, which is considered good data, but the increase is not obvious enough and the market activity is poor.
The most pessimistic view is on funds. The retained funds in the market remain unchanged, and the net outflow of funds outside the market is 294 million.
Among them, Asian funds had a net outflow of US$135 million, daily fund fluctuations were still large, and fund sentiment was unstable.
The net outflow of U.S. funds was 159 million in a single day. At 20:00 in the evening, before the U.S. stock market opened, funds rose slightly and then began to flow out rapidly.
However, the trading volume of Asian funds surged by 53.61% in the short term. It seems that Bitcoin's intraday rebound still stimulated speculation among many market speculators, but the trading volume of US funds continued to decline slightly, and the liquidity of funds deteriorated again. In addition, with the outflow of funds, the mood of US traders is still not good.
During the data statistics period, the US stock and crypto market fluctuated. We will focus on the macro economy and the market later.
Macroeconomics and news:
During the period of publication, the U.S. inflation data and the consumer index provided by the University of Michigan were released with mixed results. Coupled with the hawkish speeches of Federal Reserve officials, Bitcoin in the U.S. stock market fell sharply in the short term. The Nasdaq fell below today's gains, and the S&P basically wiped out today's gains. The market's expectations for an optimistic interest rate cut were once again shattered.
In fact, I also emphasized this point yesterday. In the future, we will have to face the situation where US officials use data and market expectations to regulate the market. We must understand that what the United States wants now is that US bonds and the US index remain strong and the stock market remains stable. The performance of US stocks in recent days has been too strong, and this cooling down is also to cool down the US stocks. Otherwise, if the US stocks hit new highs again, the disadvantages will actually bring more advantages. The stock market bubble has already discouraged many people, and another breakthrough may lead to an increased risk of bubble.
In the future, everyone will still have to slowly get used to the market expectations and market fluctuations caused by data controlled by the United States. At present, the crypto market lacks a strong independent narrative. The market is currently moving with reference to the sentiment of the U.S. stock market, and the U.S. stock market is more sensitive to U.S. data. Therefore, the torture has just begun.
Maybe the officials’ speeches in the early morning will be dovish again, and the market will rebound again.
Recently, everyone is discussing the US's efforts to curb inflation and when to cut interest rates. In fact, everyone should understand that curbing inflation is just an excuse. The purpose is to adjust market expectations by regulating inflation, affecting the adjustment of monetary interest rates, and thus helping the dollar, US bonds, and of course US stocks to attract money. The US interest rate cut is not due to inflation, but because of its confidence in its own economy. Only when the US believes that its own economic and financial risks have decreased will it start to cut interest rates.
As for inflation, it will inevitably affect the economic and financial risks of the United States itself. However, compared with the external risks that the United States faces and the confidence index of the global dollar system, the United States still has to firmly consolidate the strength of the dollar capital, of course, on the premise that its own risks can be controlled.
As for inflation, I have said a theory before that any economy relies on its own national debt and the issuance of legal currency to create bubbles, thereby expanding the economy. The disadvantages of inflation can be completely passed on to society for digestion. The US inflation, or the US dollar inflation, will be paid for by the US allies and US dollar capital countries around the world. So from this perspective, is the US really afraid of inflation? It is only afraid of the risks brought by inflation. Once these risks are reduced, inflation can be slowly digested by the world.
Fellow Taoists, the future is uncertain and the road ahead is long and arduous. Let us move forward step by step.
Market summary:
A set of data was released tonight, with mixed results. The hawkish speech by the Federal Reserve officials caused the Bitcoin market to drop by more than 2,000 points. What does this mean?
In fact, through this point we can basically judge that the recent market sentiment is still not good enough, and traders are still nervous, which leads to slower rises and faster falls under nervousness. Because of the nervousness, there is a bearish sentiment, which directly leads to everyone's collective selling.
As for data, we also see in today's statistics that although the market value and trading volume were good at the time, the market has fallen now, and the market value is estimated to have shrunk overall. The most troublesome thing is the capital, with Asian and American capital collectively outflowing. Although the short-term outflow will not bring much impact, there is still sufficient capital of 160.8 billion in the market, but the cessation of off-site capital inflow and outflow actually means that the subsequent market capital and trader sentiment are not optimistic about the current market in the short term.
We have been saying these days that any short-term rebound or breakthrough of venture capital after a decline does not rely on a short-term burst, but rather a short-term burst to break through a key position, which requires subsequent strength and emotions to stabilize prices at certain positions, forming shocks, turnover, or repairing technical trends. Otherwise, short-term bursts will go up quickly because emotions will also go down quickly. Therefore, capital outflows also prove the true emotions of traders, which is more accurate than any panic index or greed index.
The futures market tonight may be a bit bloody. At this time, don't talk about the technical side of going long or short, what technical signals to use to go short and how much to earn. At this stage, the support that the technical side can provide has become weak, not to mention the long or short signals given. Even if you are confident that you are going long on the technical side, a negative news will still cause a drop. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious in tonight's contracts.
As for the altcoin, as long as there is no hawkishness in the early morning, or Bitcoin stabilizes above 60,000 during the US trading hours after the US stock market closes in the early morning, the altcoin driven by this wave of decline will definitely rebound. Recently, the altcoin is still relatively resistant to declines, after all, the previous decline was too severe. If the altcoin rebounds over the weekend, it is recommended that everyone control and sort out their positions, don't be too heavy, and don't buy blindly because of the weekend market, be careful that it is just a flash in the pan on the weekend.
Finally, thank you all for following Uncle Cat and thank you for your continued support.
