Both BTC and ETH spot markets are experiencing "oversupply" ....
On May 9, the crypto market continued to be weak due to potential retail selling pressure.
According to Coinglass data, more than 2,500 BTC flowed into exchange wallets in the past 24 hours. Fortunately, the "high net inflow" situation did not continue to appear and was alleviated in the subsequent market.
In particular, after the United States announced the data on the number of first-time unemployment claims last week, there was a short-term net outflow. According to news, the number of first-time unemployment claims in the United States last week was 231,000, the highest since the week of August 26, 2023, and the estimated number was 212,000, and the previous value was 208,000.
Although the "weekly data" is not convincing enough, it has improved the current weak economic expectations to a certain extent and opened the green light for further loose economic policies. For the crypto market, it may increase people's investment interest.
Of course, the current crypto market problem is not only the decline in investor investment sentiment caused by the impact of the macro economy, but the regulatory pressure that has been exposed and the cyclical adjustment of the crypto market itself are the key factors.
According to relevant data, over the past 30 days, entities in all queues have accumulated more than 10,000 BTC. This accumulation rate has not kept up with the approximately 19,000 BTC issued in the same period. Before the halving, Bitcoin's monthly issuance was 27,000 BTC, but it fell to 13,500 BTC after the halving.
A similar situation has occurred with ETH. Since the ETH Dencun upgrade, the on-chain transaction GAS fees it has brought have been greatly reduced, but the "destruction rate" has dropped, which seems to be causing "inflation" in ETH.
According to CryptoQuant analysts, before the Dencun upgrade, Ethereum's high network activity meant higher destruction fees, so there was less supply of Ethereum. However, after the Dencun upgrade, the total destruction fees have been out of line with the network activity.
This means that the highly watched BTC and ETH have both experienced "oversupply" in the past month, and judging from the current situation, this "bad" trend is likely to expand further in the short term. Because, while the overall market trading volume has declined, the difficulty of BTC mining has further declined.
According to BTC.com data, at 19:00:14 on May 9, the difficulty of Bitcoin mining was adjusted, and the mining difficulty was reduced by 5.63% to 83.15T, which is the largest reduction since December 2022; the current average computing power of the entire network is 575.70EH/s.
This shows that BTC mining companies will get more BTC spot with the same computing power in the future. This will make the supply and demand relationship unfavorable to BTC prices. In addition, the surge in OTC market transactions, which is ignored by most investors, also brings greater selling pressure to the crypto market. Because it is generally believed that this is the result of institutions or whales continuing to sell crypto assets.
