Hello everyone, I am Crypto Mubai, everyone affectionately calls me Dabai, Dabai is also the senior analyst and one of the founders of Daxigua Community Spot and Heyue Layout in the blockchain market! The winning rate is as high as over 96%!
After the Bitcoin halving, altcoins all soared, which was a "rule" in previous bull markets. However, the much-anticipated "altcoin season" has not yet appeared. Dabai analyzed the reasons for this phenomenon and provided investors with suggestions for optimizing strategies.
What is cottage season?
When altcoins outperform Bitcoin and prices surge across the board, it’s called the altcoin season. This is a period of booming growth driven by optimism, just like a rising tide lifts all boats. The altcoin season has driven the development of almost all sectors, and the massive influx of liquidity into the market is its driving force.
Liquidity Tracking
Historically, liquidity has come primarily from two sources:
Retail funds flowing in through centralized exchanges (CEX)
Outflow from Bitcoin on CEX to altcoins on CEX
Liquidity then flows down the “ladder” of market cap rankings. The OGs are well aware of this dynamic and often refer to it as the “Road to Alt Season.”
The Lalapalooza Effect
The "road to the cottage season" in 2021 was clear, but now it has disappeared. Dabai believes that the reasons are multifaceted and are the result of the combined effect of several factors.
The power of a single factor is not enough to change too many things. But when they combine and exert influence in the same direction, the effect is huge. The famous investor Charlie Munger described this effect as the "Lalapalooza effect." (Note: The Lalapalooza effect refers to the effect of multiple interconnected factors in the same direction superimposed to produce a strong amplification effect)
What impact do all these factors combine to produce?
1. Project saturation
Although the market liquidity is abundant, the projects are extremely saturated. Imagine that there are more ships in the sea than waves.
Only certain areas, such as the AI field or the SOL ecosystem, will feel the real wave of the "copycat season". What used to be a "rising tide lifts all boats" has evolved into a selective rotation game, similar to the PvP nature of the "Hunger Games" movie (items roll each other).
2. Token Dilution: The Invisible Handbrake
Token dilution (especially from token unlocks) kills alt seasons like 2021. This often overlooked factor sucks up a lot of liquidity. No matter how good a project’s technology is, it’s hard for prices to rise if there’s oversupply.
A community user conducted a sample survey of tokens launched so far in 2024. The average circulation rate (circulation/supply) of these project tokens is about 14%, and there are about $70 billion worth of tokens waiting to be unlocked.
What happens when oversaturation of projects is combined with an oversupply of tokens? The alt-season is unsustainable.
3. Increased adoption is a double-edged sword
The increased adoption rate in traditional fields is both a good thing and a bad thing. On the one hand, it enhances the credibility of cryptocurrencies; on the other hand, it also makes the field more sensitive. If more smart people turn to cryptocurrencies, it will be more difficult to find industry opportunities.
4. Bitcoin ETF: New Developments
The approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF has changed the landscape for altcoins. Before the advent of ETFs, the main access channel for Bitcoin was through CEXs. This is a good thing for altcoins, as investors can easily switch from Bitcoin to try altcoins.
This time, the buyers are different. For those who bought Bitcoin through ETFs, the path to the altcoin market was less direct.
Here is a quick summary of the reasons why altcoins “disappear”:
The altcoin market has shifted from a rapid rise to a rotation game
· As market intelligence continues to improve, finding opportunities requires more effort
Project saturation, coupled with oversupply, is draining liquidity
Traditional altcoin season path broken due to Bitcoin ETF
So in the current market environment, how should users respond?
1. Pay close attention to the fully diluted valuation (FDV) and saturation rate.
2. Keep an eye on developments in ETFs and areas where institutions have heavy involvement, such as RWAs. These may have different tracks and even more favorable dynamics over the next few years.
3. In a market flooded with altcoins, don’t just look at the dollar value of the project. Comparing altcoin valuations with Bitcoin valuations can more accurately assess altcoin strength.
4. Work harder to gain an advantage. This is not just about increasing assets, but also about improving knowledge, skills, and connections.
There are still a lot of opportunities in the crypto market, but it requires more effort and a new perspective. The situation is changing rapidly, and those who can adapt quickly will be more likely to succeed
Let’s review yesterday’s $BTC , $ETH analysis:
1. Yesterday’s big cake had a big pullback as predicted by Dabai, but it is still within the short-term support range below us!
Dabai's Bitcoin contract is to buy at around 61500-61000, and the stop loss is around 60500. The market hit a low of around 60843 in the early morning of today. Those who bought at around 61000 can make more than 600 dollars by now. Even if they bought at around 61500, they can still make more than 100 dollars by now!
The current market trend is like this, with great fluctuations up and down. The layout of the big cake must choose a good direction and a suitable position. Again, the current market is suitable for shorting at high levels and buying at low levels, and place orders at suitable positions!
Pay close attention to Dabai’s analysis of Dabing and Yitai. Believe me, it will be very useful to you!
VIP has many precise passwords. It is very important to grasp the direction and position in such a market. Also, in such a volatile market, stop loss must be set. Recently, many old friends have come to Dabai and were trapped because they did not set stop loss. They asked me how to get them out of the trap. It was a headache. I could only let them add a position step by step and lower the average price, or let them set a very low stop loss and hold on. The market fluctuates too much. As long as you can withstand it, there will be results in the end!
Work hard, young man. The bull market is not here yet. Don’t get left behind.
2. ETH also fell back a lot just as Dabai predicted, falling below 3000 and reaching a low of 2930!
Dabai asked everyone to buy more of the Yitai contract at around 2950-2850 yesterday, and set the stop loss at around 2800! The market reached a low of 2930 in the early morning of today. Those who bought more at around 2950 can now get 50 dollars of meat!
Everyone has seen the recent market. Whether it is spot or contract, it is difficult to operate and it is difficult to get profit. But don't worry, pay attention to Dabai's latest developments in time, Dabai will help you grasp the market trend! VIP has many accurate passwords. In the falling market, don't panic, keep a steady mind, get profit, don't be sloppy, it's time to get out.
I have said many times that you must set a stop loss for the contract. Being lucky once does not mean that you will always be lucky. I have seen too many people who are so confident that they are conceited. After being lucky once or twice, they think they have a grasp of the market, but in the end they still lose all their money!
Because Dabai has experienced too many things like this, he saw that he used to be arrogant, but in the end, all kinds of bloody lessons made him learn to grow up and learn how to look at the cryptocurrency circle more correctly, and he is no longer a hot-blooded young man with a hot head. He has experienced vicissitudes and is introverted!
Let’s steadily welcome the violent bull market with Dabai!
Today's BTC and ETH market analysis
1. Today's big cake market analysis:
BTC's market started to fall from early this morning until it stopped falling near 60843!
It has recently fallen from a high of around 64,300 to around 62,000, a drop of more than 2,000 points. More than 100 million US dollars have been liquidated in 24 hours. There has been no negative external situation. This drop has undermined the confidence of the bulls!
Judging from the chart, 62000 is still a key point and a guide for the long and short directions. If it runs below the chip center for too long, it will be more difficult to pull up subsequently. At present, we mainly focus on whether 62000 can stabilize. If it stabilizes, we will focus on whether it can break through above 63600!
Short-term support below 60000 59000
Upper short-term resistance 63000 65000
Those who didn’t follow the operation yesterday can wait for Bitcoin to pull back to around 60,500-60,000 again and then choose to go long, and set the stop loss to around 59,500. You can do it yourself or wait for news from Dabai!
2. Today's market analysis of Auntie:
ETH is mainly linked to Bitcoin, and it continues to fall back to around 2934. It is currently hovering around 3000. The overall operation idea at the current position is relatively simple, and risk control is carried out around 3000.
The overall sentiment of the market is relatively low at present, and there is not much enthusiasm in major communication communities.
The main reason is that there is no new narrative in the cryptocurrency circle at present. Without heat, it is impossible to absorb further funds. For Ethereum, what can be expected in the medium term is the spot ETF, which will be passed sooner or later. It is just a matter of time. In this market situation, a more stable way is to continue to deploy spot in batches and wait for the market to recover.
The current market only needs a slight move from the main force to achieve a large increase. In the short term, I personally prefer to wash the market, and the main force is also waiting for the opportunity to make the market. This market is ultimately controlled by the bulls, who absorb funds in a weak situation and cash out in a strong situation!
The upper short-term resistance is 3200 3400
Short-term support below: 2900 2800
Those who didn’t follow the operation yesterday can wait for ETH to pull back to around 2930-2900 again and then choose to go long, and set the stop loss to around 2850. You can do it yourself or wait for news from Dabai!
