Bitcoin's future is becoming increasingly predictable, almost a future you can see at a glance! The only future is going up!
Analysis: Bitcoin VRP indicator falls to 2.5%, market uncertainty has significantly reduced
According to data tracked by Bitfinex analysts, since the Bitcoin halving event on April 20, its one-month VRP (volatility risk premium) has fallen from 15% to 2.5%. The VRP calculation is based on the gap between Volmex's Bitcoin 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) and 1-month realized volatility (VBRV).
Bitfinex analysts said in a report: "The sharp narrowing of the VRP suggests that market expectations are being readjusted to a more stable and predictable environment after the halving. The market consensus seems to be that future volatility after the halving may be lower than previously expected." In other words, the uncertainty of the Bitcoin market has weakened, and investors expect market conditions to be more predictable.
In addition, the analyst also said: "One possible reason for the small decline in Ethereum VRP is that the US SEC is expected to make a decision on the spot ETF application on May 23, 2024, bringing additional uncertainty to the price of Ethereum. This also confirms that VRP captures the premium associated with future uncertainty." (CoinDesk)
