Bitcoin (BTC) recaptured $64,000 over the weekend but lost that support level in early trading on Monday.
At the beginning of this week, the crypto market was volatile. According to Twitter data, BTC soared to a high of $65,545 in the early morning, but the trend of BTC quickly reversed after the news that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a "Wells Notice" to Robinhood's crypto business unit, accusing it of suspected securities violations.
As of writing, BTC is trading at $63,115, down 1.5% on a 24-hour basis. Other cryptocurrencies had mixed performances, with Ethereum (ETH), DOGE, SHIB, and MATIC down 2%-3%, while Solana (SOL) and XRP were up 4%-6%.
BTC has not yet completed the pullback, and the next upward target is $92,000.
John Glover, chief investment officer at cryptocurrency lender Ledn, said bitcoin prices could still see some downside before ending a correction from March’s all-time high of $73,000.
Glover based his prediction on the Elliott Wave Theory, a technical indicator that posits repeating price swings in an asset. “While the drop to $56,500 may have completed the correction, I still expect prices to reach $52,000-55,000 before the 4th wave of the correction is complete,” he said.
The theory holds that market trends tend to repeat a pattern, with each cycle consisting of 5 rising waves and 3 falling waves. The first, third and fifth waves are impulse waves representing the main trend, while the second and fourth waves are callbacks between impulsive price behaviors.
“Once the decline/correction wave is complete, I expect wave 5 to ensue to push higher to around $92,000,” Glover concluded.
Other bullish comments
Crypto hedge fund QCP Capital observed a resurgence in demand for Bitcoin call options in September with strike prices of $75,000 and $100,000, illustrating investor optimism that BTC will climb to higher prices in the coming months. Bernstein analysts also told clients in a report on Monday that BTC is “far from completing its upcycle” and reiterated their forecast that BTC will reach $150,000 by the end of 2025.
"We feel better about this call, with indicators suggesting this is a healthy cycle but still early in the process. The risk-reward here remains attractive," said analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra.
They said Bitcoin’s correction to a low near $56,525 was positive for the market as it “cleansed excess leverage in futures contracts on cryptocurrency exchanges.”
Analysts also highlighted that U.S.-listed spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows again on Friday after eight consecutive days of outflows. Notably, Grayscale’s GBTC recorded $63 million in net inflows on Friday after 78 consecutive days of outflows, which analysts said was “significant given that GBTC has been the source of a large and sustained sell-off that the new nine ETFs have had to absorb.”
Other positive factors cited by Bernstein analysts include strong overall ETF inflows over the past three months, rising corporate interest in buying Bitcoin, stable hashrate post-halving, flat transaction fees post-halving, and low prices for Bitcoin mining equipment.
Mike Martin, content director at tastycrypto, also sees last week’s pullback as a healthy development for the market, and he expects Bitcoin to “stabilize around the $60,000 mark in the short term, with prices set to remain stable over the coming months amid ongoing inflation concerns and monetary policy uncertainty.”
“Looking ahead to the end of the year, it is entirely possible that Bitcoin could reach $80,000,” Martin said in a report. “However, this forecast depends on several factors becoming more favorable, including clearer monetary policy signals and potentially lower interest rates, which could reignite investment interest in risk assets such as Bitcoin.”
He added that clarity on rate cuts “will be key to reigniting the bull case for Bitcoin. Such a move could improve broader market sentiment and encourage investment in cryptocurrencies as an alternative to traditional investments that may offer lower returns in a lower interest rate environment, especially as the dollar weakens.”
Vijay Marolia, co-founder of The Cash Square, also believes that "the bottom may have come" and "expects the Bitcoin bull run to continue this year."
He said: “Although technically
“I would not be surprised (in the short term) if the price dropped to the $50,000 level – I think the bottom is probably in, so I expect the bull run in Bitcoin to continue this year, as the price of Bitcoin is inversely proportional to confidence in global fiat currencies.”
As for catalysts to reignite the bull market’s momentum, Marolia noted, “More easing from the Federal Reserve (or other major central banks); any additional increase in government spending (which would be taxed or inflated); and any spike in the 10-year Treasury and/or a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating.”
Emmanuel Quezada, CEO of U-topia, said: “While accurately predicting a market top or bottom is challenging, it can be asserted that current discounted prices provide a significant opportunity for a new ATH to be achieved in 2024.”
Quezada said: “Given the current market trends and the impact of institutional order flow on market capitalization, there is a high probability that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in the next quarter. Market adjustments often stem from uncertainty. Therefore, regulatory clarity within the market framework is a key driver to guide liquidity in a favorable direction.”
