"Looking ahead to the endless frontier technology; seeing into the future, leading the new era of investment research.This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
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Weekly Review
This week, from April 29 to May 6, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $65,500 and the lowest price was close to $56,552, with a fluctuation range of about 15%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 63,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 980,000 pieces;
64000-68000: about 830,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
U.S. unemployment rate in April was 3.9%, expected to be 3.8%
The U.S. non-farm employment in April was 175,000, expected to be 240,000, and the previous value was 303,000.
On May 3, U.S. interest rate futures currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice in 2024, compared with one time expected before the release of the non-farm data.
Encrypted ecological news
The former mayor of Los Angeles was hired as a policy advisor to Coinbase;
Uniswap launched the candle chart function, which can track token price changes in real time;
Tiger Brokers (Hong Kong) officially launched virtual asset trading services, which are currently only available to professional investors;
Manuel Nordeste, vice president of Fidelity Digital Assets, said at an event in London that they are working with pension funds that want to allocate Bitcoin;
Hunter Horseley, CEO of Bitwise, said: “Many traditional and reputable companies have begun to participate in the Bitcoin business in unprecedented ways;
BlackRock said it is meeting with a range of investors to discuss a Bitcoin ETF, including pensions, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies;
A BTC ETF whale has emerged in Hong Kong, named Ovata Capital Management. The fund is distributed in four different US stock ETFs with a total allocation of $60 million. They said their goal is to generate absolute returns that are unrelated to the overall performance of the stock market;
Well-known European institutions disclosed BTC holdings in 13F filings: Swiss bank Lombard Odier ($209B AUM) owns $1.5M worth of IBIT;
BNP Paribas bought 1,030 IBIT token shares in the first quarter.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
BlackRock and Grayscale ETF net position
Grayscale ETF Net Position
Grayscale ETF’s BTC reserves
High quality selling pressure
(The figure below shows the net position of BlackRock and Grayscale ETF)
From the perspective of ETFs, the most important participants currently influencing the market are BlackRock and Grayscale.
At the beginning, BlackRock had a large inflow in the market, that is, buying, in the early stage. Now BlackRock is also showing a negative selling state.
(Figure below: Grayscale ETF net position)
The selling pressure on Grayscale ETF began to gradually decrease. There was an inflow on the previous day, that is, a buying state, but it continued to outflow on the next day. However, the overall outflow (selling) has begun to decline.
(Figure below shows Grayscale ETF’s BTC fund reserves)
At present, Grayscale has sold 11 billion US dollars of its BTC reserves, leaving about 17 billion US dollars. It is expected that after a 40% reduction, the remaining chips may not change too much, and the impact on the market will gradually decline.
(Figure below: high-quality selling pressure)
Under high-quality selling pressure, the selling pressure area changes to the previous blue position.
Generally speaking, if there is a bull market in the future, this is a good left-side buying opportunity.
Mid-term exploration
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Accumulation trend points
Incremental structure
Risk Factor 3
USDC Exchange Net Position
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
The overall trading sentiment has not yet recovered and is still in a state of repair.
This model plays a key role in judging the mid-term trend and may take some time to adjust and repair.
(The following figure shows the accumulation trend)
All addresses in the market still lack a trending accumulation state, and it may take some time to ease the accumulation sentiment.
Of course, the premise is that purchasing power continues to recover.
(Incremental structure in the figure below)
The incremental growth has declined to a great extent, and may still be insufficient compared with the short-term market trend.
(WTR risk factor 3 in the figure below)
Red line: BTC risk factor 3
Blue line: ETH risk factor 3
From May 20 to 24, the BTC risk factor increased by 3.
It has now fallen back to a relatively average position, and the current value is still slightly rising, but compared with before, a large amount of risks have been initially released.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
Currently, USDC's exchange net position shows initial signs of recovery.
The majority of USDC users are U.S. institutions, and their support behavior relative to the bottom provides forward-looking hints.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: Risk factor is in the danger zone. Derivatives have a high risk.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
The market performed in line with expectations last week. The current risk factor has reached the danger zone. Small fluctuations or small derivatives liquidation and short squeeze are expected this week.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Both option volume and put ratio declined moderately.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volumes returned to low levels.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility has rebounded slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
There was a little panic selling after hitting the short-term holder cost line last week, but things have now returned to calm.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, it is in a state of slight accumulation of inflows, and the selling pressure is relatively low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
A small amount of inflows have accumulated this week and are currently being slowly digested, so the overall selling pressure is low.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
The second cake is currently in an outflow accumulation state.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at the moment.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has remained basically unchanged.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
Currently, only the purchasing power of the Americas has recovered slightly, while the purchasing power of Asia and Europe is still in a state of outflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT net position remained flat overall.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 60,000; there is a willingness to sell at 65,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 56,000 and 62,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000 and 66,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 57,000, 58,000, and 60,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000, 67,000 and 68,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 63,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 66,000 and 68,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
In April, the market entered a period of adjustment due to the impact of macroeconomic shocks; May is expected to be a relative recovery period.
On the premise of maintaining macroeconomic stability, there may be an opportunity for another rise in the second half of the year.
From the perspective of the overall development within the industry, the halving cycle, the construction of the internal ecology, and the positive progress of the US Stablecoin Act can still bring internal growth and value support to the industry.
On-chain long-term insights:
BlackRock also transformed from a previous buy to a relative sell;
Grayscale's selling trend began to decrease. During this period, Grayscale sold a total of about 11 billion US dollars;
High-quality selling pressure returns to the low selling pressure area
Market setting:
As the market progresses, Grayscale will have fewer and fewer selling chips available, and the selling pressure will gradually decrease.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The online sentiment is still in the repair stage;
The group accumulation condition in the field is weak;
The current sustained incremental situation in the market has not been restored;
The WTR risk factor of 3 shows that the risk has been initially released;
According to observations by USDC users, a large amount of purchasing power has been restored.
Market setting:
repair
The market has initially released risks, but it will take some time for trading sentiment to recover.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the danger zone and the risk is high.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a relatively low level.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange showed a slight accumulation of inflows, and the selling pressure was relatively low.
Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has remained basically unchanged.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 60,000 and a willingness to sell at 65,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Market setting:
The overall market sentiment in the short term is still neutral. There are no particularly obvious signals in the current market selling pressure, purchasing power, and demand. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate slightly or a small amount of derivatives will be squeezed out.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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