After experiencing strong selling pressure and structural collapse from Monday to Wednesday, Bitcoin price hit the $56,500 million support level on Wednesday - the lowest trading price since February 27, 2024, and the price peak this year is -23.4%. However, for experienced crypto market traders, such a drop is not uncommon, and I understand why many investors were terrified by the market conditions at the time, especially when many altcoins fell 40% to 60% from their highs. I think a 24% drop is normal in the crypto market.
As I wrote in my article “Crypto Markets Are Definitely Going Bullish Again After 24% Drop!” published on Thursday:
In a state of fear. That is exactly what we want to see, greed dissipates and fear rises. Then we buy!
But overall, I feel like the market is hitting a bottom.
......
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Closer to home, Bitcoin has now rebounded 11% from its panic lows, bringing prices back to between $62,000 and $65,000, with the current price of Bitcoin sitting at $64,000 at the time of writing.
Short Term Holder Realized Price (STH--RP)
Short-term holders realized price refers to those who have moved Bitcoin in the past 155 days: a key support level in the past bull market, and has provided support 3 times in the past 18 months. Even if you look at the market in the short term, as long as this level holds, there is no reason to turn bearish.
Short-term holders have clearly seized the opportunity and aggressively raised market quotations, which shows that momentum is still on the side of the bulls. Such a rebound from this level instead of breaking below is typical of a bull market.
Currently, the realized price for short-term holders is around $59,800.
Bitcoin Spot ETF
Grayscale's GBTC saw net inflows after the Bitcoin spot ETF had seen net outflows for two consecutive weeks. Previously, GBTC had seen net outflows for 80 consecutive trading days as investors flocked to cheaper options or bought cash directly, but it finally seemed to stabilize. Since converting to a spot ETF, the company has sold 314,000 BTC, about 52% of its holdings. Now, Grayscale's GBTC's small net inflow of $62 million is by no means a driver of Bitcoin prices, but it marks a decrease in net sellers in the market.
Currently, the approved AVWAP low for the Bitcoin spot ETF is $58,980.
U.S. employment data
The US jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring in April, with just 175,000 new jobs added, compared to a forecast of 243,000 in March, revised up to 315,000 (up from 303,000 previously). Average hourly earnings fell two-tenths of a percentage point year-on-year to 3.9%, while the unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 3.9%. This further pushed up market expectations for rate cuts, with the latest probabilities showing a rate cut of about 50 basis points this year, compared to a market forecast of 28 basis points before the data was released.
The US Dollar Index fell below the 105.00 level, and the next support level is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 104.38.
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Note: All content represents the author's personal views only, is not investment advice, and should not be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal, business, financial or regulatory advice. Before making any investment decision, you should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice on tax consequences.
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