Bitcoin’s inflation rate is now lower than gold’s: Future market value outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) inflation rate is now lower than gold, and analysts are exploring whether Bitcoin has the potential to surpass gold in market value based on the ratio of circulating supply to stock (Stock-to-Flow, S2F) theory. While this theory provides a positive outlook, in practice, Bitcoin may take longer to achieve this goal.
In the long run, the slow development of the global economy may mean that Bitcoin will lag behind the market value predicted by its S2F model in the next 5 to 10 years. In addition, the development of custody services, regulatory frameworks and trading tools will take time, and asset managers will also need time to adapt to this emerging market. With these factors working together, although Bitcoin has shown great growth potential, its path to achieving its potential market value may be more complicated and longer than expected.
Cryptocurrency market volatility: Bitcoin battle intensifies
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin’s bulls and bears showed even-handedness following the recent halving event, resulting in the trading price remaining above $66,000. Particularly in November 2020, six months after the third halving event, Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average climbed to then-highs above $10,320. Then in mid-April 2021, the price of Bitcoin achieved a significant increase, soaring to $63,800, reaching 4.5 times its previous value.
This price action not only shows how Bitcoin reacts to key economic events, but also highlights its appeal among long-term investors and its volatility. Over time, this price dynamic provides important market insights for traders and investors.
Bitcoin historical performance analysis: significant rise after halving event
In December 2016, just five months after the second Bitcoin halving event, its 200-day moving average hit a new high. In the following 12 months, Bitcoin's price achieved an amazing surge, rising by more than 2,000% to a record high of nearly $20,000. This trend is not new; in fact, around the time of the first halving event in November 2012, Bitcoin's average also climbed to a new high and quickly achieved a similar rapid rebound.
Market Outlook: May face challenges in the short term, but still bullish in the long term
Although the market may show some weakness in the short term, historical data and long-term trends show that Bitcoin often shows a strong recovery after key economic events such as halving. This pattern provides a bullish signal for long-term investors, indicating that Bitcoin may achieve similar massive appreciation in the future.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis: Key Price Action Insights
Bitcoin price dynamics analysis: After a strong non-farm payrolls report, Bitcoin has shown clear upward momentum, testing the upper trendline of $63,000 to $63,500. The current daily level shows that there may be a price pullback in the next few days, which will be a good opportunity to wait and see and enter the market. The possibility of a direct breakthrough of the current trend seems limited, and a period of price correction and consolidation is expected to accumulate more upward momentum. In this case, establishing a short position may provide an excellent risk-reward ratio.
Market trend clarity: The path of the market is becoming increasingly clear. In the second half of the next bull market, the key will be to observe the extent of the market's retracement. It is expected that the retracement will be inevitable and the magnitude may be quite large. The market behavior at this stage will provide important guidance for investors' future strategy choices.
Market awaits new catalyst: Bitcoin buying opportunity
As the market looks forward to new catalysts to push cryptocurrency prices back up, Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, pointed out that a drop below $60,000 would provide an excellent buying opportunity. He stressed that such a price correction should be seen as a rare investment window, providing long-term investors with a good opportunity to increase their holdings or enter for the first time.
In-depth analysis of miner costs: Determining the ideal entry point for Bitcoin
Miner cost analysis: According to data from Capriole, after the Bitcoin halving, the average electricity cost for miners is $77,000. Including equipment depreciation, management fees, etc., the total cost rises to $129,000. Data provided by other sources such as statistical websites show that the cost is $102,000.
Explanation for cost differences: These figures may be high because they include all types of mining machines and high-cost mining farms in Europe and the United States.
Data from low-cost mining farms: In high-standard mining farms in the United States supported by our 1024 Fund, the average electricity cost for miners to mine one Bitcoin is between $55,000 and $65,000. Using Bitmain's latest mining machine T21, the cost can be reduced to $50,000, and using the top-of-the-line S21 mining machine it is further reduced to $45,000. After adding depreciation and management expenses, the total cost increases by 30%.
Cost summary: Overall, the comprehensive cost of mining one Bitcoin for mainstream miners is about $60,000 to $80,000, while the shutdown price is between $50,000 and $60,000. Data from high-risk mines such as Africa and Russia are not included. In a bull market, being able to buy Bitcoin at $60,000, which is close to the cost price of miners, should be considered a lucky opportunity. This is based on in-depth logic beyond macro analysis, on-chain analysis and technical analysis, and is why I decided to buy at $60,000 and go all in at $64,000.
Binance's top 200 altcoins and AI and MEME sectors
Altcoin trends:
FLOKI is now in the lead with a gain of 16.80% and the price has managed to break out and stabilize above the 4-hour EMA20. Such a breakout could signal a period of strong unilateral uptrend.
COMP's performance has been relatively stable from October last year to March this year, with an increase of one-fold, but it still has room for growth compared to other tokens.
RSR is currently at the critical support area of 20/50 weekly EMA, and now is a good time to buy gradually.
MEME sector performance:
MEME-type coins generally perform better than Bitcoin, showing the high activity of the market.
WIF rose by 18.33%. Despite leading the gains, the price was still in a wide range of fluctuations on the daily chart and had not yet formed a clear upward trend.
As an emerging currency, MEME's current price has fallen back to the low point in January, which is worthy of investors' attention.
Highlights of AI sector:
AKRM performed well in the AI sector, with an increase of 18.08%. Although it is the leading currency, the price failed to break through the previous high area. In view of this, it is recommended to set a stop loss line to protect the investment.
WLD has fallen 64.64% from its all-time high, and the price must stabilize above $6 to re-establish the bullish logic on the daily chart.
As a newly listed currency, NFP has fallen by 73.81% since its launch, which is a remarkable performance.
Akan today's spot code
Recommendation B: TRU (short-term)
Reason for recommendation: Potential stocks in the RWA sector. In the RWA sector, its short-term key resistance point is at 0.126. Once this level is breached, a significant upward move is expected. The long-term target is towards the upper limit of the larger trading range, at 0.18, suggesting that a successful breakout could start a strong uptrend.
