The recent postponement of the interest rate cut has caused a very bad market sentiment. Although the Federal Reserve said that it may only cut interest rates 1-2 times this year, that is, in November and December.

But.

If the interest rate is cut in September: Black swan may not appear. Then the general election in November. This is relatively mild.

If the interest rate is cut in November, the probability of black swan increases. If a black swan appears, the election will collapse at the same time (the picture is too beautiful and I don’t want to dare).

If the interest rate is cut in December, the probability of black swan is even higher. Although the election in November is completed, the new president will take office in January. He will wipe his ass as soon as he comes (the picture is too beautiful and I don’t want to dare).

Therefore, a September interest rate cut cannot be ruled out.

This meeting indicated that the balance sheet reduction will be slowed down in June, and it is possible to stop the balance sheet reduction in September.

At the end of 2018, it was announced that the balance sheet reduction would be stopped in the second half of 2019. The balance sheet reduction was stopped in June 2019, and the interest rate was suddenly cut. Therefore, a September interest rate cut cannot be ruled out.

But don’t be optimistic. History shows that US stocks will fall for a period of time at the beginning of interest rate cuts.

In 2019, the cryptocurrency market also fell after the interest rate cut in 2019. Click the main leaf to follow the official account: Bifangshe, and enter the group for free.

My point of view is:

1. The bull is still there, don't be afraid.

2. Now it is possible in the second half of 2019 (because the expectation of interest rate cut and decline is advanced).

3. The probability of black swan is increasing, and some bullets should be left for black swans.