What does the Fed say? It really depends on words whether to raise interest rates or not. At night, Daly suddenly said that she had no intention of stopping the interest rate hike, and the market shrank. This statement is in stark contrast to what was emphasized in the last interest rate meeting: the Fed will consider raising interest rates at the right time, depending on the specific inflation data. It is completely the opposite of what was said. If there is no problem with the cross-language translation, then they have not yet gotten on board.

The market has come to this point, especially the impact of the slowdown of the global economy on a macro level, it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to make further interest rate hikes. If before, it was killing one thousand enemies and losing eight hundred of its own, combined with the current interest rate, it will lead to killing eight hundred enemies and losing one thousand of its own. Macroeconomic regulation should be comprehensive. What is the point of relying on an interest rate?

The monthly chart has been basically stable so far, with a rebound range of about 12%, which is much lower than the 32% rebound last month. After all, the bull market has not yet arrived, and it is really rare to be able to maintain this height.

Regarding the market in the last month of the year, from a technical point of view, the breakthrough of 38,000 points must be firmly established. Emotionally, the same is true. Those who are already on the bus will not get off no matter what, and those who have not yet boarded are waiting. It always takes a wave of unstoppable momentum to make the fence-sitters follow, and then give them a knife to exchange the chips in their hands.

After that, the black swan of CZ landing safely on Binance is unlikely to come. Will the market fall again after the end? At present, it is still a high probability event. The reason is that the people who should be liquidated in the circle have not been liquidated, and the rules that should be formulated outside the market have not been formulated.

Let's imagine that when the SEC goes to great lengths to lay out its own capital and create a compliant and legal harvesting environment for the approval of the ETF, if the introduction of laws finally defines the concept of decentralized tokens, or recognizes their legality within the framework of some tokens. Then, correspondingly, when a large number of tokens are illegally removed from the shelves and the siphon effect comes on, will the crypto market be shaken?

Of course, the above is just an extreme assumption. In fact, the SEC is indeed doing this, but the scope is not so large. Currently, there are only a few tokens that are confirmed to be securities, but in fact, according to the standards of those few coins, at least 98% of the current ecosystem will be defined as illegal.

With the certainty of a bull market coming and the uncertainty of when a black swan will come, the commonplace advice about our holdings is to keep more than half of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Even if most of the short-term or medium- to long-term gains are stronger than these two, in terms of the final results and long-term market value, these two are still the undisputed leaders and runner-ups.

Let's talk about the IDs listed on UP today. The daily line reached a high of 40%. In the past quarter, it has become an industry practice to list on the Korean exchange and then surge and return to the starting point. When the news came out before, I didn't remind everyone to pay attention, because the market brought by this kind of news is really just for fun. The sustainability depends on the project itself and the behavior of the trader.

Judging from the ID, the overall market value is close to that of ENS, and it has been integrated after being collected into Binance's Launchpad. The subsequent empowerment of the entire project is still very uncertain in terms of application. Of course, with the support of Binance, it is very likely that the market value will be further away from ENS.

From the logic of value investment, if it is a long-term layout for personal operation, this concept will still give priority to ENS. The essence of speculation and investment is the underlying application. In one sentence, ID is suitable for speculation, and ENS is suitable for investment.

Finally, I still want to emphasize that the bottom of the daily line of Bitcoin has been rising. The technical point of view is relatively pure. There will definitely be a wave of large-volume pull-ups before the market ends. So in the long run, you can find opportunities to stock up on Bitcoin at present and in the case of a later correction. Every operation now is for a good result in the next big cycle. Don't dislike the slow market, and don't be greedy for enough lows before taking over.

BTC: The short-term support of the big cake daily line is 37100 points, the strong support is 36600 points, and the pressure level is still 38000 points. The long-term trend of the daily line has not changed at present. The short-term trend has moved downward again after testing the pressure level of 38000 points. It is expected that the support and pressure levels will be tested back and forth. Short-term operations will not be made. If the strong support is not broken, long-term positions will be held normally.

ETH: Ethereum is still weak overall and linked to Bitcoin. After falling below the 2090 support level in the short term, it broke through 2000 points. The daily support level is 1960 points, and the daily pressure level is 2130 points. No operation will be made before it goes independent.

REN: The concept of the second layer of Bitcoin is linked to the daily trend of Bitcoin. It is now around 0.058 points. Please pay attention to it. #BTC #ETH #REN