How quickly people's moods change. Literally 2 months ago everyone was buying the market at a high, and now everyone is in a panic selling their assets at a loss.
In past posts, we have repeatedly explained that in the future the market will do everything to take your positions.
This is especially true for positions with leverage from which the market has finally been cleared, and this can be seen from the liquidations, which during the current collapse amounted to only $480 million🩸
Most of the market is already trading at levels close to early 2024 prices.
And Bitcoin reached the levels of February 2024.
Now the time has come when you need to gain a position on Bitcoin on a grid, since there is already fear in the market and people have stopped believing in continued growth in the medium-long term.
The fear of greed index has cooled from greed to neutral levels, and the alts do not react with such a strong movement with a strong collapse.
This means we don’t have long to fall, or we’re already somewhere near the bottom.
📉 Reasons for falling
The main reason for the fall was described in the post 👉The Real Reason for the Market Fall
Bitcoin continues to correlate with the main asset of the planet SP500, which continues to go down.
The current sales are related to the upcoming Fed meeting, which will be held today at 21:00 Moscow time.
Market participants expect negative rhetoric from the Fed and are already factoring this into the price.
Therefore, even if the meeting takes place in a negative way, we are unlikely to see a strong fall, since most of the fall has already occurred and everything is already included in the price.
Also, sales in the crypto market are explained by the fact that trading in ETF instruments was launched yesterday in Hong Kong.
As always, our favorite saying works: “Buy the rumors, sell the facts.”
⌛️How much longer to fall?
We've sorted out the fundamentals, now let's move on to technical analysis.
1️⃣ Weekly timeframe
Bitcoin has now entered a very important zone, where it is time to make purchases for those who do not yet have a position.
The price is right now testing the long-term moving MA20w and the medium-term upward trend.
The indicator has successfully left the extreme overbought zone and is already almost at neutral levels.
If the price does not stay above $55,700, then panic selling may begin and then the price will plummet down to $47,000.
Now we are at very significant levels and it is important to stay there.
If this happens, there will be extreme fear in the market, and the indicator will go into the oversold zone.
Consequently, there will be nothing to fall on and there will only be growth without all the extra passengers 👋
This is the most negative of all possible scenarios and we personally bet that we are already at the bottom. But psychologically we are ready for such a fall and under no circumstances will we sell our positions.
Simply put, we are ready for a drawdown from current prices of another -15% for Bitcoin, which is practically nothing within the crypt.
2️⃣Daily timeframe
Here the picture is more pleasant, indicating that we are somewhere near the bottom or are already forming it.
The price fell out of a 2-month sideways trend and now we are testing the median of the sideways channel.
In the crypto market, they really like to lower the price below the side channel before starting to grow. All this in order to knock out the stops of all buyers inside this sidewall.
The indicators are already in the oversold zone, which is an excellent signal for purchases.
Long-term moving averages do not turn down, but continue to look and move up.
Today or tomorrow it is important for the price to close above the level of $59,500 in order to finally confirm the completion of the current correction.
📊 In general, friends, we are waiting for today’s Fed meeting, due to the anticipation of which a sale is taking place in the markets.
Personally, we already have our entire deposit in the market, since buying out fear in a bull market is always a winning strategy.
Psychologically, we are ready for a drawdown in Bitcoin of -15% from the current one. But what if this doesn't happen?
Therefore, we are willing to risk this small drawdown, especially since the bottom is impossible to catch.
If the price still reaches $47,000, we strongly doubt that the majority will have the courage to buy and people will expect Bitcoin even lower. Market psychology has not changed over the years, and why should there be an exception now?
🤟 Did you like the review or want to better understand cryptocurrencies and technical analysis?
✔️ Then subscribe to the channel and like
➡️ #cassius_trade Look for us on Pavel Durov’s social network. Be sure to subscribe!
#dyor #crypto2024 #btc #bitcoin
