This gate came very quickly last night, and the position that had just been attacked yesterday was completely lost again in less than fifteen minutes. Judging from the point, it did not fall much, but the repeated long and short harvests have made the market sentiment dripping with blood. This is why it is not recommended for everyone to carry out large leverage operations. In the eyes of Gouzhuang, every leverage player is the meat and potatoes in their bowl.
In terms of specific reasons, the number of U.S. ADP jobs increased by 497,000 in June, the largest increase since February 2022. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week ending July 1 was 248,000, which was 245,000 expected, and slightly ahead of the 239,000 figure. This led to the market consensus that the U.S. economy is strong and there is a probability of another 25 basis point interest rate hike in July. Over 90%.
In addition, it is noted that the current US two-year Treasury yield has risen to 5.084%, reaching its highest level since 2007. I don't know if you have paid attention to it. At the beginning of the epidemic, when the money was printed, the value was approximately zero. At the moment when market liquidity continues to withdraw, the risk market has a short-term retracement of 1,500 points. In my opinion, it is still a normal phenomenon.
The negative macro factors, whether it is the interest rate hike or the withdrawal of liquidity from US bonds, have been discussed in great detail before. In any case, compared with the past, the market impact brought by the current negative factors has gradually become resistant, which is why many sectors are in a state of self-repair after the rapid insertion of the pin.
Regarding future market expectations, there is actually only one topic, which is when the adjustment will end, and then there will be a wave of accelerated rush, driving a new round of retail investors to enter the market with FOMO sentiment. Today's link with yesterday's door, at least the data tells us one very objective thing, that it is difficult for the current market to fall and not turn back.
The repetition of the market is the same as our level of cognition. Our cognition depends on the feedback from the news, and finally falls on the market trend. If we feel that our self-cognition leads to position losses in this process, then there must be cognitive bias. For example, the market unanimously believes that the application of Bitcoin spot ETF by institutions such as BlackRock is a super positive. They are looking forward to the expectations in the next three to five years. What does it have to do with our market conditions in the next one or two days?
It is indeed difficult to operate at present, and it is difficult in a vicious cycle where the more you operate, the smaller your position becomes. My logic of holding positions in line with expectations is not necessarily completely correct in the market, but it is definitely the most conservative. The simplest logic of cryptocurrency trading is to find a buying point to enter the market and a selling point to rest.
BTC: After the continuous draw of the big cake, the second technical support of 29500 points is still at a stage with a small probability of being touched. With the release of this wave of bad news, there will be some aftermath in the short term, but from the current market resilience, it is unlikely to turn around directly. The bulls are still tenacious, and the overall contract positions are currently volatile, but they recover quickly. The short-term trend will be around the bottom support and the upper 31500 pressure level. After the adjustment period, it still tends to pull up sharply, driving the market sentiment, so in terms of operation, wait and see in the short term. If there is no strong downward break, you can patiently wait for the arrival of the final delivery point.
ETH: Ethereum lags behind Bitcoin by 20 percentage points. Under the current market sentiment, we can only simply think that Ethereum is weak and linked to Bitcoin. The short-term market trend is still testing near the 120-day long-short split point. The radical band view is to eat up the sharp drop and reduce the position on the rebound. The bottom support is 1850 points and the resistance is 1960 points.
BCH: If this wave of rapid pull-up cannot effectively break the previous high, there is a possibility of forming a double top. My personal opinion is not to chase the rise, and pay attention to a quick breakthrough around 320 points.
LTC: I have a small half position now. If you are aggressive, consider a small supplement below 100 points. Currently, the daily support has not been broken, and the three-line support is strong. The average price of the half of the previous position is less than 80 points, so you can follow up with a small position.
Friends who want to communicate more can contact me for further communication!