Today is Sunday, and there have been a series of negative news this week. First, there was the verdict on CZ's money laundering charges, then the quarterly GDP and core PCE data announced by Big Data were far below expectations, the SEC rejected the Auntie ETF, the Big Pie ETF experienced continuous net outflows of funds, the Federal Reserve postponed the interest rate cut, and so on.
Have you noticed that the market situation is very similar to that in September last year, with bad news flying all over the place, and then the market takes off directly, leaving you no chance to get on board, and it goes far ahead without any pullback in between.
Last night’s trend was exactly the same. After the last halving, Auntie took the lead in rising all the way, and the subsequent increase was even stronger than that of Bitcoin. Last night, Bitcoin seemed to have lost the main support level of 63,000, but Auntie took the lead and brought back a significant rebound.
Tangren believes that the efforts of Auntie are far from over. Hong Kong spot ETF will open for trading next Monday, and it is bound to happen that big investors will adjust their positions and replenish their stocks of Auntie.
After the Hong Kong ETF is passed, Ethereum will inevitably reverse sharply, and the expected long-term return of 3 to 5 times is very worth looking forward to. As the exchange rate of Ethereum rises, the Ethereum ecosystem will be fully launched, the L2 system will be very strong, and the pledge board deserves everyone's attention. This can be seen from the recent large-scale purchase of Ethereum by Brother Sun for the second half of the year.
The May Day holiday is coming soon, and as expected, it will be another holiday with long queues on the highways. However, while everyone is busy celebrating the holiday, two major events will also occur next week.
First, the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting. Second, the super-important non-farm data will be released. The three consecutive months of inflation data released previously are worrying, and there is little hope that the Federal Reserve will move towards its 2% target.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on May 2. After the meeting, Powell will deliver a speech and the non-farm data will be released on May 3. This information will determine the direction of the market in the future.
If it is higher than expected, it is bad news, and the bitcoin price will most likely pull back to around 62,000 to 60,000. If it is lower than expected, it is good news, and the market will continue to fluctuate and rebound and move out of the upward trend.
Let’s talk about ETF data. ETFs have experienced net outflows for three consecutive days, with a net outflow of 1,309 coins. Grayscale still accounts for the majority, while BlackRock scored 0 points.
Judging from the data, market liquidity is starting to deteriorate and investors are becoming cautious, but fortunately there has not been a large-scale capital withdrawal so far. This is enough to show that Wall Street institutions have simply become cautious and there is no panic. The big guys are not panicking, so why should we panic?
In addition, the bull market story is still going on, the Auntie ETF will be passed sooner or later, plus the Auntie Dencun upgrade, interest rate cut speculation, and the presidential election, this round of bull market is still far from coming, and it is still at the bottom. Now is not the time to panic, but to find a way to get on the train at the right position.
Interpretation of the disk:
Today's market is that the second brother is pulling the eldest brother. The eldest brother has been talking for a long time without any reaction. The copycat has also gradually bottomed out under the leadership of the second brother. This is the first time in the past two months that the aunt has been so tough. Of course, this is related to the increased probability of approval of the Hong Kong ETF and the beautiful aunt ETF, which will be launched soon. In this round of strong rebound, Tangren believes that it will not be a problem for the aunt to go above 3400, and the L2 sector will also rise with this wave of the aunt.
The rebound of more than 5% of Yitai is not small overall, and finally the whole Yitai sector ushered in a substantial rebound. The corresponding sector currencies include ETHFI and ETHENA’s bottom rebound of the support line, and there is also a correction of SSV that should be paid attention to, which can turn from correction to main rise at any time.
As early as the 24th, Tangren released information in the community about intervening at the 3100 position. The estimated return for continued long-term holding is between 3 and 5 times. Friends on the car should just hold their positions and wait for the price to rise. The current volume of Bitcoin is far from meeting the conditions for an increase, so there is nothing much to say about Bitcoin. The current stage is still dominated by fluctuations.
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