Bitcoin (BTC) tends to form a re-accumulation range around halving events. Historically, Bitcoin has consolidated in this range for up to 150 days after the halving before breaking out into a parabolic uptrend.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s Cycle Acceleration
When Bitcoin reached its all-time high in mid-March, it meant that its cycle accelerated by 260 days. Despite the subsequent 49-day consolidation, the acceleration has dropped to around 210 days. If Bitcoin repeats history after the halving and consolidates for a total of 150 days, the current cycle will still accelerate, but to a lesser extent — by only 60 days.
However, for Bitcoin to fully resynchronize with the historical halving cycle, it would require consolidation that lasts for more than 150 days after the halving. Ideally, a consolidation of at least 210 days after the halving would bring the acceleration rate to zero. Therefore, after more than 200 days of post-halving consolidation, Bitcoin could explode higher sometime in November 2024.
Copy mid-2023 range
In mid-2023, Bitcoin formed a re-accumulation range that lasted 224 days before breaking out into a new uptrend. Rekt Capital suggests that for Bitcoin to fully synchronize with its historical halving cycles and reset the current acceleration to zero, it would ideally need to replicate this 224-day range.
While Bitcoin has demonstrated the ability to generate such a range, it has been achieved in the absence of fundamental catalysts such as the anticipated Bitcoin ETF and the halving event itself.
Ultimately, the duration of the current re-accumulation range will determine the remaining acceleration of this cycle and influence where Bitcoin eventually tops out in this bull run.
(Personal opinion, not a recommendation)
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