There have been a lot of negative news in the past two days. Yesterday, the United States released three macroeconomic data, two of which disappointed the market and investors.
One is that the initial value of the annualized quarterly GDP rate in the first quarter was 1.6%, far lower than the expected 2.4%, and a huge difference compared with the 3.4% growth rate in the fourth quarter of the whole year.
Another thing is that the PCE price index for personal consumption expenditures in the first quarter also increased by 3.4% compared with last year, far higher than the previous value of 1.8%. Even if the food and energy sectors with greater volatility are excluded, the core PCE data far exceeds the Fed's expected target of 2%.
Our interpretation of the data is that, first, the Great Piaoliang economy is paying the price for the sequelae of previous excessive and advanced consumption. To put it bluntly, the Great Piaoliang economic growth has become slower.
2. China's economic inflation has begun to intensify, and U.S. stocks and bonds will be impacted as a result. China's domestic macroeconomic environment has further deteriorated, leading to further increase in market panic.
The core PCE for March will also be released tonight, which is also a data worthy of everyone's attention. Because the current trend of Bitcoin is highly correlated with the U.S. stock market, as long as the expectation of interest rate cuts weakens, it is possible that the currency price will fall in a short period of time.
In terms of ETFs, Bitcoin has seen net outflows for two consecutive days. Yesterday, on April 25, Grayscale saw another outflow of 2,157 coins. Fidelity's FBTC saw net outflows for the first time in three months, and the outflows were quite large, with a total of 897 coins outflowed. Together with the outflows from Grayscale, the total outflow was US$197 million.
Now the only one that has not shipped any shares is BlackRock. I don't know if BlackRock can withstand this wave of impact. When ETFs are linked to U.S. stocks, market liquidity directly affects the ETF's inflow and outflow data.
If we want to increase the current market liquidity, we must start with the United States' macroeconomic policies. According to the United States' Finance Minister Janet Yellen, it is expected to inject a large amount of liquidity into the market when the Treasury bond issuance plan for the second quarter of 2024 is announced next week.
It is said that this plan will inject 1.4 trillion US dollars of liquidity into the market. If the plan can be implemented, Bitcoin will usher in an overall rise in May and may even break through the previous high.
Market Interpretation:
The market continues to fluctuate in the consolidation range. Judging from yesterday's trend, there are signs of stopping the decline in the short term. However, after the negative news in the past two days, there is still a certain amount of small demand to clear the leverage. At present, the position of 63,000 is a relatively strong support. In view of the current supply strength, the pressure at the position of 67,000 above is still relatively large. Therefore, Tangren's view is: as long as 60,000 points does not fall below, it is still in a repair market. As long as it breaks through 67,000 in the future, it means that the bullish channel above is fully opened.
In terms of altcoins, MEME is still a strong sector. Although the overall altcoin trend is sluggish and funds have been absorbed by mainstream coins, there has not been a large drop this time. The reason is that most of the leverage liquidation has been cleared in the last round. Currently, the funding rate is maintained at a relatively healthy level. If the position is not full, now is the time to consider layout.
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