Why do we say that the bull market is only halfway through, rather than over? Why is there danger along the way?
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Factors supporting the bullish trend:
After the ETF was approved, the first round of capital inflow led to a sharp rise in the market, which made long-term funds and leveraged funds profitable. It is indeed time to adjust and digest. The car is too heavy. ETF funds are long-term funds and it is a continuous process. The inflow in the first stage is temporarily suspended, and there is potential new funds in the later stage. After all, many large financial institutions have not yet promoted it on a large scale.
The crypto market gives people the feeling that the ecosystem is still "eager to try", especially now that NFTs, runes, L2, etc. related to the Bitcoin ecosystem are very active. It is not ruled out that a new round of ecological prosperity will appear. After all, SOL's meme ecosystem can be hyped so fiercely, and the concepts of the Bitcoin ecosystem have great potential for imagination.
In addition, it is only a matter of time before the Fed cuts interest rates, and it is inevitable that the money supply will continue to increase. The market value of Bitcoin at $66,000 is about $1.3 trillion. If this volume continues to rise, it will inevitably require a larger amount of funds. Therefore, the core factor driving the market in the second half of the year will still depend on when the United States will substantially increase the amount of money supply. The driving force of ETFs alone is limited.
Dangerous reasons:
The current market is weakening and funds are becoming cautious. A big reason is the trend of the US stock market. After a round of surge driven by the explosion of Nvidia's AI, the US stock market is now showing signs of weakening, and even the decline is "accelerating". In particular, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly postponed interest rate cuts, and market funds are also worried about the economic recession. After all, most of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycles in history were forced to be implemented after a crisis. Will it repeat the same mistake this time? There are also concerns.
However, a rapid rate cut also has risks. The Fed has been raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet for two years, but due to its high "risk-free" interest rate of 5.5%, global funds have poured into the United States for "arbitrage". Liquidity is sufficient, which goes against financial common sense. Therefore, the market has risen over the past year or so. However, arbitrage funds have a large leverage. If the interest rate is cut quickly, the arbitrage leverage may be broken, causing liquidity to quickly deplete and bring risks.
The fact that the market funding rate has turned negative for the first time may indeed indicate that the "critical moment" is coming. I hope the market will create a golden pit to take everyone on board and drive to a bright future.
About REN
Renzo (the protocol) is a protocol on Ethereum that simplifies complex staking mechanisms for end users and enables fast collaboration with EigenLayer node operators and Active Validation Services (AVSs).
ezETH is Renzo’s liquidity re-staking token, allowing its holders to gain re-staking opportunities while having liquidity.
However, Renzo supports more LSD tokens, not only eth chain, BSC chain, ARB chain, coinbase chain, linea chain, etc. And Renzo also provides native ETH rewards, EigenLayer points and ezPoints rewards.
Then we estimate the price of the token. First, from the previous launchpools, the returns are generally around 1-2%. This time, 18 million tokens are staked. The current price of BNB is 600 USD, so the overall return of 1%-2% is 100-200 million USD. Currently, the BNB pool has 212,500,000 REZ allocated, so the price of a single token is around 0.5-1 USD. Then the overall FDV will reach 10 billion USD.
Then let's review the previous data of ethfi. When ethfi was launched, it was also on launchpool. The total number of ethfi was also 1 billion, and the initial unlocking was also 11%. At that time, the airdrop amount was 20 million, and the BNB pool was 16 million. The launch price was about 4 US dollars. So the overall FDV is about 4 billion US dollars.
If we compare it with the issue price of ethfi, then the price of renzo will be around 0.3-0.4 USD. At present, there are many projects in the staking track, and the homogeneity is very serious. Then they are all in a hurry to go online. In fact, these staking projects are essentially not very helpful to the blockchain world and are meaningless. Moreover, the market value is several billion at the beginning, and the bubble component is a bit large. Because Ethereum's transformation into POS has made staking the mainstream gameplay, and then you say that the equity assets after staking are not circulated, I am giving you a layer of dolls, then can this doll be infinitely placed? Then how to control the risk, this is all a problem. V God also made it clear not to overload the consensus of Ethereum.
Finally, let's summarize. At the current stage, BNB mining is indeed a relatively good and stable way to make money. Thanks to this series of launchpools, BNB has more than tripled from the bottom. Taking into account the gains in the bull market, there is absolutely no problem in seeing $1,200 in this wave. In addition, there are several projects in launchpool every month, so the annualized return is about 50%, which is very good.
