The U.S. stock earnings season has reached a critical stage this week. Can the U.S. stock market, driven by technology stocks, "pull up" Bitcoin?
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As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at around 66,000. As Bitcoin has been unable to effectively break through the daily resistance level and stabilize, the market's bullish sentiment has been severely consumed. In the short term, Bitcoin prices will face new tests.
The U.S. stock market is at a critical time this week. The release of Meta’s financial report today will stimulate market sentiment. Can the rise and rebound of U.S. stocks help Bitcoin break through the key position?
Bitcoin disk analysis:
Continuous sideways movement, emotional value is consumed, and bulls become pessimistic.
This paragraph can summarize the Bitcoin market in the past three days this week.
The picture still uses the market analysis picture from Monday. It’s not that I’m lazy, but there really doesn’t need to be too many changes. The only change is that the support has moved up a part.
For three consecutive days, the price of Bitcoin has been moving back and forth near the middle line of the daily Bollinger Band. The disadvantage is that the resistance or subsequent support at this position has become a bit of a joke. It has continuously broken through and fallen below at small levels, but has never been able to stand firmly. This shows that the bulls and bears at this position are not strong, and with the consolidation of this key position, a lot of the market's bullish sentiment has indeed been consumed, and the sentiment in the futures market is also weakening.
The key resistance level is still around 66,500. If it can hold firm effectively and not fall below it in the short term, the bullish force will increase, and vice versa.
The advantage is that the continuous turnover at this position also makes the chips accumulated at this position continue to increase. In the current market, the turnover near a single price increases, and the chips accumulate higher and higher, which is conducive to the formation of an effective support point after the price rises in the later period.
The effective support below has moved up after 3 days of trend. The 64,650 support is the effective support below the current price, which comes from the monthly Bollinger Band.
The support after effective consolidation continues to move upward, which will also help prices stabilize during short-term declines.
The RSI relative strength index has reached around 58.4. The value has increased, but the price has not increased too much, but it is currently in a neutral state.
At present, the technical trend of Bitcoin is still of little reference value, and the focus is on market sentiment. Later we will look at the market sentiment through market data and capital changes.
Speaking with data: changes in market data and capital changes
Data compared to Monday.
The overall market trend is rising, and the market value is increasing. Ethereum has the most significant increase, followed by altcoins, and then Bitcoin. Bitcoin's market share is decreasing, while Ethereum has the largest increase due to the popularity of ETFs, and altcoins are also gradually becoming more active.
In terms of trading volume, both Bitcoin and Ethereum rose with shrinking volumes. Although Bitcoin's increase was not large compared to Monday, it was unable to break through effectively, which led to a decrease in trading volume. This is normal.
The shrinking volume and rise in Ethereum indicate that Ethereum currently has more bullish sentiment.
The trading volume in the copycat market is on the rise. As copycats become more active, the bullish and bearish sentiments are obviously not unified and stable enough because of their large number and complexity. However, the gradual activation of copycats also proves the active risk sentiment in the market.
In terms of funds, the situation is a bit pessimistic. The retained funds in the market increased by 700 million, while the net inflow of Asian funds in the off-market was 240 million US dollars. However, US funds began to show a significant outflow on Tuesday, with an outflow of 480 million US dollars.
The increase in funds retained in the market also means that the current funds in the market are sufficient for the time being, and also represents the confidence of funds in the market. Asian funds continue to flow in steadily, while the outflow of US funds directly represents that the main force of the recent market activity is in the Asian market.
The downturn in spot trading in the US market and the outflow of funds are also one of the reasons why Bitcoin has been unable to break through and stabilize in the short term. It is hoped that the boost in US stocks this week can bring better funds to the crypto market.
Macroeconomics and news:
Just now, Israel took action again, which directly led to the narrowing of the pre-market gains of the US stock market. The US stock market opened higher, continuing the effect of the technology stocks' earnings reports this week. And judging from the narrowing of the stock market gains, the risk market still has some tensions about geopolitics.
Tonight, we will focus on Meta's financial report, which will determine the sentiment orientation of this week's technology stock financial reports. At present, there should be no big problem. Meta opened high and then fell slightly, compared with yesterday's increase of about 1%. If the financial reports of technology stocks this week are good, then they will basically be immune to the impact of US economic data on Thursday and Friday.
The main narrative of the crypto market is to follow the US stock market. The US stock market has performed well this week, but it has led to an outflow of US funds from the crypto market. It is hoped that after the stock market stabilizes, US funds will flow back. Bitcoin currently needs US traders to consolidate the price increase.
Gold has now rebounded in response to Israel's actions, offsetting today's losses.
Market summary:
At present, the overall bullish sentiment in the market is still weak, and the same is true for the futures market. Although the US stock market performed well this week, it did not effectively boost the breakthrough of Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin follows the footsteps of the US stock market, it currently lacks new narratives and hot spots, as well as more funds.
Pay attention to the first effective support below. If this position is not broken, after the Meta earnings report is released tonight, the rise of US stocks should stimulate traders' risk sentiment, which will effectively stimulate funds to participate in transactions. Although US funds are currently flowing out, the funds retained in the market are still sufficient. The outflow of funds only means that the sentiment of US traders has deteriorated in the short term, but it is not a reason to be bearish.
At present, short-term contract trading still requires careful monitoring of the market. Under the premise that the general trend is uncertain, the risk of the contract is undoubtedly greatly increased. Traders are advised to pay attention to risk control and set stop losses.
In terms of spot, the overall environment is not obviously negative at present, even if it falls, it is gradual, and the sentiment of the cottage industry is gradually improving, so there is no need to panic too much for the time being. However, under the premise that the general trend is not clear, it is right to reasonably control the position and reduce your own risk line, which may be more helpful for your future holding mentality.
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