Since the end of 2023, many projects have begun to use the points method to distribute airdrops. For us practitioners, the initiative has been transferred to the hands of the project party. Before the airdrop is issued, all we can see is a string of points numbers. In the end, how many tokens this string of numbers can be exchanged for is entirely up to the project party, and we can easily be taken advantage of.
Getting airdrops is a long process. If they are reversed, all the time and money invested in the previous months will be wasted, and losses will occur, so we urgently need a [points airdrop yield calculation framework].
In my previous airdrop tutorials, I would intentionally or unintentionally insert the "points airdrop deduction process", but I always felt that it was not very accurate. It was not until I saw the paper on Gomble Games' points airdrop calculation published by Despread, a Korean media, that I realized that there are often more accurate deduction methods.
Today's article will not describe how to win the Gomble Games airdrop, nor will it share the background of Gomble Games. I will first share the airdrop calculation process. I used the article on Despread as a textbook and translated it into something that we can understand. During the process, I corrected many data errors in the original text and added articles that are suitable for Chinese readers.
All future project analyses will be written in this format, so that the revenue budget will be more accurate.
1. Introduction to Gomble Airdrop
1. MM Points Airdrop
At present, users can get MM points by participating in Gomble Games. There are two ways to participate:
One is to do free tasks to get MM points;
The other is to pledge BNB/USDT/USDC to obtain MM points (the ratio is 3:1:1);
Before 05:00 AM (UTC) on May 5, 616,320,000 MM will be distributed every day as STAKE rewards. The event starts on February 29 and ends on May 5, for a total of 65 days.
After the event, you will receive MM points and SpaceKids NFTs (a total of 1,530 NFTs are distributed in this round of activities, accounting for 27.5% of the total NFTs).
2. About Gomble Games’ NFT
Gomble Games has two NFTs, one is OG Spaceship and the other is SpaceKids Saga.
2.1 AND Spaceship
OG Spaceship is an NFT issued to early contributors, and a total of 100 will be issued in this round of activities. Because of the limited quantity, it is the most valuable NFT of the project, about 40,000U each, and there is still a big increase.
There are 4 types of OG Spaceship, which are distributed through auction.
Alpha: α-10, 10 units (completed)
Bravo: β-20, 20 (April 23 ~ April 26)
Charlie: γ-30, 30 (April 30~May 3)
Delta δ-40, 40 pcs (Team Inventory)
2.1.1 About OG Spaceship Auction Rules
Users can participate in auctions with $BNB;
The initial auction price starts at 1.0 $BNB, and the minimum bid increase is 0.1 $BNB;
If someone outbids you on the bidding leaderboard, you will be removed from the leaderboard and your BNB bid will be automatically refunded;
After the auction ends, users on the leaderboard will be considered winners and will receive OG NFT
The auction rankings are as follows:
Trial Shoot: 1st to 10th place (full refund)
1st auction: 1st to 10th place (no refund)
Second auction: 1st to 20th place (no refund)
Final auction: 1st to 30th place (no refund)
Users not on the leaderboard will receive a full refund.
2.1.2 OG Spaceship Holder Rewards
OG Spaceship holders will receive an airdrop of $G tokens and Free Mint Rights (which is what WL means) of 5 SpaceKids (PFP NFT) based on the type of NFT.
2.2 SpaceKids Saga NFT
SpaceKids NFT is an in-game NFT. In the future, Gomble Games will develop narratives around SpaceKids NFT and $G tokens.
The total number of SpaceKids NFTs is 5555, which are distributed in the Free Mint way. However, if you want to obtain Free Mint rights, you need to participate in various activities of the project. The distribution of SpaceKids NFTs is as follows:
(III) Summary of Airdrop
Gomble Games' focus before May 3rd is: OG Spaceship auction, 0-point MM points airdrop, and pledge airdrop (calculating MM points).
Participate in OG NFT auctions and pledges to have a chance to receive SpaceKids NFT and $G token airdrops.
Currently, OG Spaceship is in the beta round of auction (ending on April 26). When I wrote this article, the top 10 bids were around 73 BNB, which is approximately equivalent to 43,800U/OG NFT. One OG NFT can be minted into 5 SpaceKids NFTs + $G token airdrops.
It can be preliminarily estimated that the price of SpaceKids NFT in the future will be between 2000-4000U each, and the value of $G token airdrops obtained by holding OG NFT in the future will be more than 15000U;
Since the $G tokens issued by OG NFT are determined by the nature of the NFT, the γ-round floor price of OG NFT may change, and the corresponding $G token airdrop value may also fluctuate.
The above is a rough inference based on the current market situation. Next, we will use a more professional method to look at the specific value of participating in staking and obtaining MM points airdrops.
2. About Gomble Games Points Calculation
The paper on Gomble Games on Despread believes that the points system will gradually become the standard for issuing tokens in most projects in the future, but the points have always been processed off-chain, and the distribution of points is not public, so usually we don’t know how many tokens we can receive and their value until the end.
Although we can see the point price before the market opens on whales.market, it does not help us determine whether it is worth participating before the market opens.
Therefore, we still need a set of point valuation framework to help us analyze whether a project is worth participating in.
3. What can we get from calculating the points yield rate?
Through the points calculation framework, we can obtain the following information to help us decide whether it is worth participating in the airdrop:
Points and Tokens Exchange Ratio
Capital cost of obtaining points, token mining cost and FDV
Model expected return (ROI) based on the project’s FDV
Let’s take the Gomble airdrop event as an example to see how the points evaluation framework works.
IV. Reference conditions required for calculating the points yield rate
Generally, when making a points airdrop calculation model, you need to determine the following factors (the insufficient part can be assumed) to calculate the cost of participating in the airdrop, and use this to evaluate the price of points and tokens.
Total Token Supply
Total airdrop allocation
Total Points Supply
Total points allocated to staking (or points per staked asset)
Staking duration
Expected return
TVL
Benchmark Project
5. Basic information of Gomble airdrop
1. Total Tokens: 1 billion $G
2. Total airdrop amount: 100 million $G (10% of total amount)
According to the GOMBLE STAKE announcement, users who participate in staking in the BNB, USDT, and USDC pools can share 616,320,000 MM (equivalent to points) every day. The activity will last for 65 days (February 29-May 5), and a total of 40,060,800,000 MM will be distributed to those who participate in staking.
The above is confirmed information. For the remaining basic conditions, we can only assume.
Assume the following factors:
1. MM points are obtained through staking and social tasks. The total supply of points cannot be estimated, because for us, it seems more fun to participate in social tasks with multiple accounts without staking, so the total supply of MM will expand. Therefore, it is necessary to simulate the share of Stake MM rewards.
2. TVL: While staking is flexible, we can assume that TVL is fixed from day one and locked for 65 days.
3. Expected Returns: Even if TVL is fixed, expected returns will fluctuate because the weight of each pool varies over time and the value of BNB keeps changing. For the calculation, we assume:
The price and annual percentage rate (APR) of each asset are fixed;
The TVL ratio of BNB, USDT, and USDC is fixed at 3:1:1;
100% of the tokens will be airdropped at TGE;
MM's Dare burn will not be factored in. Dare is a zero-sum game with a 10% platform advantage.
Based on this, we return to the question of "what can be obtained from the integral yield calculation":
Points and Tokens Exchange Ratio
Capital cost of obtaining points, token mining cost and FDV
Model expected return (ROI) based on the project’s FDV
Let’s start with these questions one by one:
6. Points and Token Exchange Ratio
There are two ways to earn MM points:
Community tasks (0)
Staking
Although there is a fixed amount of MM (40,060,800,000 MM) for staking, the MM obtained from community tasks cannot be calculated, so the MM share in the staking pool is used to calculate the exchange rate. The formula is as follows:
Conversion rate = Total MM for staking / (Share of staking MM * Total $G distributed to MM)
Translated:
Conversion rate = Total MM staked / (MM staked shares * Total $G tokens allocated to MM)
Total MM for staking pool: 40,060,800,000
Total $G distributed to MM: 100,000,000
Total amount of $G tokens: 1,000,000,000
In general, the middle value of 10% to 50% is used, and the points and tokens exchange ratio is as follows:
The corresponding curve is as follows:
It should be noted here that users holding OG Spaceship NFT will also receive token airdrops, and SpaceKids free coins WL will be distributed through staking and airdrop activities, so some parameters need to be added to the above table for calculation.
There is no information available on how many tokens will be airdropped to users holding NFTs. The airdrop distribution of Dymension and AltLayer can be used as a benchmark. Both projects have airdropped tokens to users holding NFTs.
Dimensional airdrops 1.25% of total supply to various NFTs
AltLayer distributes 1.06% of total supply to NFT holders
Considering that the NFT launched by Gomble will play an important role in the ecosystem, we assume that 2% of the total supply will be allocated to Spaceship and SpaceKids, as follows:
MM Points Airdrop $G: 80,000,000
NFT holders airdrop $G: 20,000,000
$G airdrop total: 100,000,000
Total $G: 1,000,000,000
The adjusted point token exchange ratio is: 5008:1 ~ 1002:1
At this point, we have roughly obtained the exchange ratio between MM points and token $G.
Let’s look at the capital cost of points, token mining cost, and FDV:
7. Capital cost of points, token mining cost and FDV
There is always a cost to get airdrops, and 0 airdrops are no exception. Although staking to get airdrops is also a way to get airdrops for free, it also incurs costs. This requires us to calculate the expected rate of return, so that investors can intuitively see the expected gains and losses.
Assume that you allocate $1000 to BNB, USDC, and USDT pools in a ratio of 3:1:1, respectively. The expected rate of return is 20.05%.
BNB: APR 21.51%, based on Binance launchpool’s average annual interest rate of 24% (compounded daily)
USDT: APR 17.59%, based on 3/6 Venus supply APY (daily compounded)
USDC: APR 18.13%, based on 3/6 Venus supply APY (compounded daily)
If there are products with higher annual interest rates, the expected returns will also be higher.
It should be noted here that Gomble is a gaming platform, not a re-staking platform. Staking here means that you have to give up the fixed interest rate of other financial products and accept the risks of Gomble in pursuit of higher returns.
So we can infer that the expected return of Gomble staking should be more than 20.05% (65-day expected return is 3.57%).
This expected return can be calculated by using the following formula to calculate the mining cost per MM:
Mining cost per MM = (TVL expected return) / {(Total airdrop allocation Share of staking points) * Conversion ratio}
Translated:
Mining cost of each MM point = (TVL expected return) / {(total airdrop amount pledged points share) * exchange ratio}
Recently, Gomble’s Total Value Locked (TVL) reached $10 million. Substituting this into the formula, the cost per MM would be $0.000009.
From the table above, since the total supply of staked MM is fixed, the cost of each MM point is constant regardless of the staked MM reward share. However, as TVL grows, the cost of each MM increases linearly, as shown in the following figure:
From this, we can see that staking at a lower TVL as early as possible will enable you to obtain MM points at a lower cost and receive more MM rewards, because MM points are distributed linearly according to the blockchain.
Knowing the cost of MM points, we can calculate the mining cost of $G tokens with the following formula:
Mining cost of $G = Mining cost per MM * Conversion ratio
Translated:
$G mining cost = each MM mining cost * exchange ratio
Since the redemption ratio changes with the MM reward ratio, the mining cost per $G is different from MM.
For example, if the staking MM reward share is 10% of the total supply of points and the TVL remains at 10M, the cost per $G is $0.0357. After going online, the FDV of $G should be above 35.7M to be profitable.
We adjust TVL to see how the mining cost, $G, and FDV per MM change in the 10~50% share range.
Unlike TVL which is the only factor affecting cost, cost per $G and FDV are not linear as the exchange rate varies depending on the share of MM staking rewards.
The above figure shows an inflection point, that is, the $G mining cost becomes more volatile as TVL grows.
It can be seen that the cost factors affecting $G token mining are TVL and the total supply of MM points, and the total supply will expand due to community tasks, which means that as more and more people participate in community tasks, staking participants will gradually be at a disadvantage (total supply increases → shares decrease → costs increase).
Gomble’s points system design poses the above risks to Stake participants. In order to protect Stake participants from being at a disadvantage, the project should consider:
1. Control the total supply
2. Create a consumption mechanism
3. Increase MM allocation for staking
Controlling the total supply is nearly impossible as it is difficult for projects to give up community hype, so options 2 and 3 should be considered to increase staked TVL.
8. Create ROI scenarios based on the FDV of benchmark projects
If Gomble reaches 100M TVL and 5% stake point share, the FDV for mining $G would be $892M, similar to Shrapnel’s FDV.
So, is $G, with a fully diluted value (FDV) of $892 million, worth mining?
That’s why we need to use industry benchmark projects to create scenarios and decide whether it’s worth getting involved.
Gomble is a game studio backed by Binance Labs. Therefore, we should use the game projects invested by Binance Labs and the listed projects as the target FDV when Gomble is released.
Let's compare these projects:
Fusionist ($ACE) — Backed by Binance Labs, listed on Binance, FDV: $1.89B
Sleepless AI ($AI) — Backed by Binance Labs, listed on Binance, FDV: $2.15B
Shrapnel ($SHRAP ) — listed on Binance, FDV: $872 million
Bigtime ($BIGTIME) — listed on Binance, FDV: $2.32B
Portal ($PORTAL) — listed on Binance, FDV: $2.19B
Select 3 projects to create bullish, neutral, bearish scenarios and calculate the target price for $G.
Using the $G mining cost of TVL to calculate ROI, below are two ROI cases with different TVLs and scenarios.
Case 1: MM has a 1% ratio and is severely attacked by a witch. We can see here a negative ROI situation (assuming it is reversed), which means that the tokens you have taken are more expensive than the target price, assuming that TVL will grow in the future, then your winning rate will be very low.
Case 2: Stake MM share is 40%, where MM share is positive. In this case, your airdrop is profitable.
ROI varies based on share of MM rewards and TVL, where setting your own benchmark projects and scenarios will help you make better decisions.
Summarize
Calculating a point value alone is not enough, it is critical to understand your costs and FDV and create scenarios for your decision making. Understanding the point system and creating a framework will help you make decisions in the following situations:
Decide if staking is worth it - calculate mining costs for tokens and points and create scenarios using benchmark projects
Decide when to stop staking — use the cost of funding or your own expected return to calculate your profit and loss to measure TVL
Pre-IPO valuation — taking into account the cost of staking mining.
If you also want to calculate this process, you can check my electronic document.
Key Points
Gomble has a zero-cost method, but the current project focus is on the OG Spaceship auction. Currently, OG Spaceship is in the beta round of auction (ending on April 26). When I finished writing this article, the top 10 bids were around 95 BNB, which is approximately equal to 57,000 U/OG NFT. One OG NFT can be minted into 5 SpaceKids NFTs + $G token airdrops.
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Any airdrop can have multiple accounts. The tool I currently use for multiple accounts is the fingerprint browser MoreLogin Browser. This tool is the only fingerprint browser in Web3 that has been reviewed by Manyu.
The tutorial is as follows:
Multiple tutorials
