🍀🍀🍀Today’s must-see highlights:
1. Bitcoin buying patterns have changed significantly, with small retail investors making net purchases for 60 consecutive days
2. Bitcoin is ready for a post-halving bull run
3. Money printing is about to accelerate, and investors should boldly increase their holdings of crypto assets
4. Brazilian digital bank Nubank supports Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana deposits and withdrawals
5. Justin Sun has purchased more than $1 billion worth of ETH since December 26, 2023
Bitcoin buying patterns show clear shift, with small retail investors now net buyers for 60 consecutive days
According to HODL15Capital monitoring data, there has been a clear trend change in Bitcoin buying patterns. Small retail investors have achieved net buying for 60 consecutive days, while addresses holding more than 100 have become net sellers (after 90 days of heavy accumulation).
Bitcoin is ready for a post-halving bull run
According to an analysis published by Bitcoin Magazine, Bitcoin is ready for a post-halving bull run continuation. The analysis shows that the market has completely reset from last month's overbought state and is ready to push upward again. On-chain indicators are exactly the performance of the end of the expected mid-cycle adjustment. Price indicators show that the bullish trend remains intact, and the derivatives market has restored balance from multiple aspects. Finally, global macro data is still consistent with the prediction that the economic slowdown will turn investors to safer assets, both in the United States and globally.
Willy Woo: Exponential Bitcoin Bull Run Has Not Yet Begun
Crypto analyst Willy Woo said that according to the BTC price ratio model, the exponential Bitcoin bull market has not yet begun. Changes relative to Bitcoin halvings suggest that the current cycle may be a hybrid of the 2013 (strong demand) and 2017 (spot-dominated) cycles in structure. 2020 is a wash year controlled by derivatives.
Willy Woo said that the BTC price model he released is the comprehensive result of the relative movements of three different price models, including: 1. VWAP price (on-chain "investor" trading volume); 2. Realized price (cost basis); 3. CVDD price (veteran selling, also known as the "bottom" model).
New whales’ initial investment in Bitcoin is almost twice the cumulative total of old whales
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, said on social media that the initial investment of new whales in Bitcoin is almost twice the total accumulated by old whales. Ki Young Ju Note: The holding period of new whales is less than 155 days, while the holding period of old whales is greater than 155 days.
Stablecoin total supply reaches highest level in nearly two years
According to The Block Data Dashboard, total stablecoin supply hit $165 billion last Thursday, the highest level since late June 2022. Ripple said earlier this month that supply will reach $2.8 trillion by 2028.
Money printing is about to accelerate, investors should boldly increase their holdings of crypto assets
On April 24, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, wrote that the current crypto bull market has just begun, and investors should boldly turn left (Left Curve), hold and increase positions. Hayes pointed out that 2024 is a critical year, and many major countries will hold presidential elections. Especially in the United States, the current ruling Democratic Party will be re-elected at all costs to reverse the policies of the Republican Party. In the election year, if the public feels that the economy is in recession, the probability of the incumbent president's re-election will drop from 67% to 33%. Therefore, the easiest way for the ruling party that controls monetary and fiscal policies is to significantly increase government spending, push up the growth rate of nominal GDP, and create an illusion that there is no recession. Data shows that US government spending has accounted for 23% of nominal GDP, that is, as long as the government is willing to borrow money, nominal GDP can be as much as it wants. According to the forecast of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), whether Biden or Trump comes to power, the fiscal deficit of the US government will continue to expand in the future. In addition, geopolitical conflicts surrounding the United States are still escalating, and politicians are also happy to continue to provide billions of dollars in aid to allies. Hayes stressed that as long as the government can borrow at an interest rate lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, politicians will continue to increase spending. Therefore, in the future, the scale of money printing will only be exaggerated. He suggested that investors take advantage of the recent pullback in cryptocurrency prices and slowly build positions. With the arrival of summer in the northern hemisphere, the volatility of the crypto market will also decrease, which is an excellent entry time for non-pre-sale investors. Unless the real interest rate turns positive, investors should remain optimistic and let the winners continue to run wild.
SEC Seeks Comments on BlackRock’s Revised Spot Ethereum ETF Proposal
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is seeking public comments on a revised version of BlackRock's proposed spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF). BlackRock proposed the ETF in November 2023, which aims to track the price performance of Ethereum. The SEC had postponed its decision on the proposal in January and accepted Nasdaq's amendments on April 19. The revised document discusses the creation and redemption process of the ETF. The SEC requested comments within 21 days, which will be published on its website.
US SEC Delays Decision on Franklin Ethereum Spot ETF
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed a decision on the next steps for investment firm Franklin Templeton’s Ethereum spot ETF, pushing the timeline for a decision to June 11, 2024.
Grayscale applies to the US SEC to register the Ethereum Mini Trust ETF
Grayscale has filed a document with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to apply for registration of the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust Fund (proposed code: ETH). The fund will be created by spinning off and allocating assets from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust Fund (OTCQX: ETHE) and plans to list on NYSE Arca if the required regulatory approvals are obtained.
In March, Grayscale applied to the US SEC for a mini Grayscale Bitcoin Trust with the code "BTC".
BlackRock: The Fed has room to cut rates twice this year
Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, believes that bond investors who have been suffering from rising yields for the past month will soon find some comfort from slowing inflation and the Federal Reserve. With inflation slowing in the coming months, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year. "It's becoming increasingly difficult for them to do this, but I still think they can." Rieder said that BlackRock has cut its interest rate exposure and invested more in short-term durations. Once it sees a few good inflation reports and evidence of slowing employment, it can start to extend the duration.
Hong Kong legislator writes: The launch of Hong Kong virtual currency ETF brings three opportunities to the market
Tang Siu-fung, a district councillor of Sha Tin in Hong Kong, published an article on page A14 of the Hong Kong Wen Wei Po titled "Seize the Opportunities of Financial Innovation Without Forgetting to Eliminate Risks". The article pointed out that the launch of Hong Kong's virtual currency ETF brings three opportunities to the market: 1. Enhance liquidity and market pricing transparency. Virtual currency ETFs provide investors with a more flexible and transparent investment method; 2. Improve the risk diversification efficiency of investment portfolios. Virtual currency ETFs enable individual investors to participate in the virtual currency market with small investments; 3. Promote innovation and development of Hong Kong's financial market, which is expected to attract more overseas investors and technology companies to invest or set up branches in Hong Kong, and strengthen Hong Kong's position as an international financial center.
Victory Securities becomes the only securities firm to accept physical purchases in the first batch of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in Hong Kong
Victory Securities announced on its official website that it has become the only securities firm that accepts physical purchases in the first batch of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in Hong Kong. In addition to cash purchases, customers can deposit physical goods into Victory Securities wallets for purchases. Victory Securities said that the virtual currency spot ETF involves the action of repurchasing VA for trading, and physical purchases through Victory Securities can greatly shorten the bank's securities broker-bank transaction processing. The closing time for physical purchases is also longer than that for cash, so customers can enjoy time advantages by purchasing physical goods.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Association recommends the establishment of an independent self-regulatory organization for the development of the virtual capital industry
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Association published a letter to the Hong Kong Treasury Bureau on its official website, "Proposal to Establish an Independent Self-Regulatory Organization for the Development of the Securities, Futures, Asset Management and Virtual Assets Industries", which pointed out that "In the case of Hong Kong, the Association recommends that the SFC still retain the power to regulate market behavior (for example, prohibit insider trading, fraud, and market manipulation transactions, etc.), but split the licensing power to a self-regulatory organization composed solely of the securities, futures, asset management and virtual asset industries (and generally refers to licensed intermediaries for regulated activities currently defined by the Hong Kong SFC). The self-regulatory organization has the power to lead and coordinate the development of the securities industry, including approving new securities firms, approving advertisements, condemning licensed intermediaries that violate business rules, and even limited penalties within its authority. In addition, the development and changes of the Hong Kong securities industry will first be proposed by the members of the self-regulatory organization to its management committee. After obtaining a majority and approval, it will be submitted to the relevant institutions (including but not limited to the SFC and the exchange) for review and discussion."
Brazilian digital bank Nubank supports Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana deposits and withdrawals
Brazilian digital bank Nubank has announced support for deposits and withdrawals of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Its customers can now send and receive Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana using the Nubank app. Nubank revealed plans to add support for more tokens in the near future.
Tesla's Bitcoin holdings did not increase or decrease in the first quarter
Tesla released its first quarter financial report for 2024, and it was observed that the company's Bitcoin assets did not increase or decrease, and the size of its assets remained unchanged. According to data tracked by Bitcoin Treasuries, Tesla holds 9,720 BTC, making it the third largest public holder of the asset, second only to software company MicroStrategy (MSTR) and mining company Marathon (MARA). At the time of writing, Tesla's BTC is worth approximately $647 million, and the cost of Tesla's purchase of these bitcoins was $337 million.
Citi-backed crypto trading software provider Talos acquires crypto risk management platform Cloudwall
According to The Block, Talos, a cryptocurrency trading software provider backed by companies such as Citibank and a16z, has fully acquired Cloudwall, a cryptocurrency risk management platform. The size of the transaction was not disclosed, but Talos said Cloudwall will improve its existing cryptocurrency portfolio management system to help its institutional clients manage risks and optimize their portfolios.
Cloudwall is Talos' second acquisition after D3X Systems last year. Talos co-founder and CEO Anton Katz said that by acquiring Cloudwall, Talos will expand its PMS in the fields of spot, futures, perpetuals and options.
Justin Sun has purchased more than $1 billion worth of ETH since December 26, 2023
According to on-chain analyst Ember's monitoring, Justin Sun may have purchased a total of 339,187 ETH (US$1.097 billion) through CEX withdrawal + on-chain purchase since December 26, 2023, with an average price of approximately US$2,955.
Binance’s Bitcoin trading share drops to 55.3%
According to data from research firm Kaiko, Binance's share of Bitcoin trading has fallen from 81.3% to 55.3% over the past year. The trading share of altcoins has also fallen from 58% to 50.5%. Platforms such as Bybit and OKX have expanded their business footprint in regions such as Asia, while Binance has been dealing with the impact of legal issues. In the past year, Bybit's share of non-US Bitcoin trading has risen from 2% to 9.3%. OKX's share is currently 7.3%, up from 3% previously.
72% of people in the UAE own Bitcoin
According to Watcher.Guru on X platform, the United Arab Emirates leads the Middle East in cryptocurrency adoption, with 72% of local users investing in Bitcoin. Last year, daily cryptocurrency trading volume in the Middle East grew by 166%. In 2024, there will be an average of 500,000 cryptocurrency traders per day in the region.
