#BTCAnnual Average Investment Return Curve] The manifestation of marginal effect!
If you calculate the investment return rate of BTC one year after buying it at any time, you will see some interesting patterns in BTC history. The red curve in the figure always has an average bottom range (0.15-0.3), which gives us a new way to calculate the bottom, that is, from the peak of the bull market, the price drops by more than 70%, and there is a high probability that it will enter the bottom range;
Of course, this is a typical case of trying to find a sword by carving a boat, but it is in line with the rhythm of the bear market in BTC history; When the same method is used to judge the top, we will see a gradually moving downward peak of the top yield, which is affected by a downward trend line, which looks bad!
Note that the value of this indicator is the result-oriented data I mentioned earlier. It cannot be used to simply find patterns and predict the market. That will not help trading, but may lead to subjective bias;
And the effective conclusion we should be able to draw from this data is that as the price of BTC gradually rises, the increase rate of each round of bull market will be affected by the higher price. To some extent, this is a manifestation of marginal effect under a long-term bull trend.
That's all~