#BTC趋势预估
The wind direction has changed suddenly, and the callback is inevitable
The market direction has changed, and the callback is inevitable. Even if the price hits a high again in the short term, it will only be a short-term rebound, not a real reversal. After two or three months of consolidation and washing, the market may usher in a steady upward trend.
Recently, it has undoubtedly been a tormenting time for retail investors. Many contract players are facing the dilemma of liquidation, while spot players are trapped. Most retail investors feel confused and helpless in the market fluctuations.
Faced with the loss of contracts and the quilting of spot, retail investors don’t know where to go. Whether to continue to participate in contract trading or choose to hold spot has become a difficult problem in their minds. Judging from the recent market trends, we can roughly judge the current stage of the market and the future trend.
First, let us analyze the psychological state of retail investors in the current market environment:
1. The empty market of Bitcoin and Ethereum
Most retail investors failed to seize the opportunity in this wave of market and missed the rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The market is full of voices that the bull market is coming, and some even believe that it is already in the middle and late stages of the bull market. This atmosphere makes retail investors panic. However, due to the high price, whether it is spot or contract trading, the cost-effectiveness is not high, and the risk is also high, so most retail investors ignore the anti-falling nature of Bitcoin.
At the same time, most altcoins have not yet started, or the increase is small, and only a few sectors have risen. This has led retail investors to turn their attention to altcoins, believing that after Bitcoin rises, altcoins will make up for the rise. However, when Bitcoin remained high, most analysts in the market used Bitcoin as a basis to predict that the market will continue to rise, which further guided retail investors into the altcoin market. However, with the collective dive of altcoins, most retail investors were trapped, and there were cries of grief in the market.
2. The dilemma of retail investors who buy at the bottom as the price falls
After the price fell, some analysts began to see the opportunity to buy at the bottom and encouraged retail investors to buy at the bottom. However, for long-term investors, there is a greater risk of buying at the bottom at this time. Because the market as a whole is still in a bearish phase, even if there is a rebound, it is likely to continue to fall.In this case, retail investors who buy at the bottom may face greater losses.
In my opinion, it is not the time to rush to buy at the bottom. We need to wait patiently for the bottom signal of the market to appear before considering entering the market. This may take two or three months. During this time, we can observe the trend of the market and formulate a suitable investment strategy.
Next, let's discuss what stage the bull market is currently in:
1. The characteristics of the mid-term bull market are obvious
I think that the rule that the peak of the bull market will be reached about a year after the previous Bitcoin halving still applies. In this round of market, although Bitcoin has risen sharply, the altcoin has not seen a significant increase. After Bitcoin fell slightly in the past two days, the altcoin plummeted, which further confirmed my guess that the market is in the mid-term of the bull market. At this stage, the market will return to the previous bull market rhythm.
The key reason why retail investors feel confused and panic is the sharp rise in Bitcoin. This increase makes retail investors feel at a loss, and they have been wandering in missed opportunities and panic. The trapped retail investors feel helpless and anxious, eager to buy at the bottom but worried about being buried. This emotion causes retail investors to act eagerly and often make wrong decisions.
I dare not predict whether the market will crash like the last bull market, but history is always surprisingly similar. The market needs to be lightly loaded when it starts, and the current burden of retail investors is already heavy. Therefore, the bull market will not start easily, nor will it make most people make money easily.
2. The violent bull market will eventually come
I firmly believe that within a year after the halving, the violent bull market will definitely come. The madness of altcoins will also follow. But before that, the market will definitely consume most of your bullets. Those who can make money are often veterans who have experienced several rounds of bull markets. They not only have rich experience, but also have their own bottom-picking and top-escaping system. In contrast, retail investors who think they are old leeks often suffer heavy losses because of overconfidence. In contrast, those obedient and willing to follow the instructions of Xiaobai investors are often more likely to make profits.
Finally, whether it is spot or contract trading, the currency circle is a market full of risks and challenges.There are always only a few people who make money. Whether you operate by yourself or follow others, it is not easy to make profits in the market. But I believe that in the next few months, the market will provide us with the last opportunity to buy at the bottom. I hope everyone can seize this opportunity, successfully buy at the bottom and successfully escape the top.
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