BTC market trend analysis: halving completed, the king returns?
1. Let’s review the halving market. Two consecutive days of fierce fluctuations caused nearly 2 billion US dollars to be liquidated, and the wallets of spot players were basically halved. Everyone began to cut their losses. Bitcoin fell by 15%. Except for a few stubborn copycats, it was basically cut in half. When everyone was shouting that it was going to 52,000, Bitcoin braked at 60,000, and we saw that small-cap users were strongly bottoming out near 62,000.

2. The stock of the exchange has been maintained at the lowest record value in the past six years. Although this does not mean that the price has risen, it reflects that everyone's willingness to sell has become lower. The main force is also trying to get retail investors to hand over their chips, but the effect is not obvious. As Brother Zhuge said: release good news → pull up → wash the market → use bad news → create panic → absorb chips → release good news → pull up the market (so on).

3. History will not repeat itself simply, but it is often surprisingly similar. Although on the surface, this wave of decline may be caused by external events such as changes in the Fed's expectations for rate cuts, the conflict between Iran and Israel, expectations for production cuts, and inertial factors that there must be a drop before and after production cuts? It is undeniable that there are! But are these effects really that big? If the expectations of the Fed's rate cuts really weaken, gold should not continue to move independently; if the conflict between Iran and Israel has far-reaching impacts, global stock markets should not be so stable. All these news are the main force taking advantage of the news to cause everyone's emotional resonance and panic - the main force has long been planning to smash the market, clean up leverage, and harvest chips. It is the good news that gives them a reason to panic.

Of course, it also reflects a phenomenon that more and more institutions are entering BTC, and the macro level has become a means for the main players to manipulate the market. The macro level is not just the news level, such as the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is only the expected news level. Only when the interest rate hike or cut is implemented, it will be the real macro factor that will have a significant impact on the currency circle.

4. After the halving of BTC, the mining cost of BTC will increase. Therefore, after the halving, the price of Bitcoin will inevitably rise in the medium and long term. The reward for miners for each block has dropped from the original 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The daily income of miners will be reduced by 400 Bitcoins, which is equivalent to a reduction of 25 million US dollars in the market every day. At this rate, in the near future, Grayscale's capital outflow may not be able to catch up with the reduction in miners' income. In the long run, this is a good thing for the market.

5. The view remains unchanged: the fundamentals are not good anymore. After all, the halving has landed. We long-term players cannot only focus on the halving itself, but also need to pay close attention to the changes in macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, inflation levels, and economic changes, because these may have a regulatory effect on the currency circle. The current support is 60,500. By exchanging time for space, a new round of rise will eventually be achieved. The bottom is bought out, not guessed or waited out. Let us wait for a new round of outbreak!

I personally have also prepared funds to start a new round of fixed investment. Bitcoin versus gold, new money versus old money. The charge to launch a general attack on gold has been sounded. Once the horn is blown, Loulan will be conquered!



*The following data was collected at the time of writing and may be biased due to time changes.

1. Market dynamics and capital changes:

The current total market value is about 2.4 trillion US dollars, an increase of about 0 trillion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about 0.00%;

The market value of Bitcoin is about 1.26 trillion US dollars, an increase of about -0.01 trillion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -0.79%;

The market value of Ethereum is about 306.453 billion US dollars, an increase of about -3.6 billion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -1.16%;

The market value of altcoins (including Ethereum) is about 1.17 trillion US dollars, an increase of about 0 trillion US dollars compared to yesterday, an increase of about 0.00%;

The total BTC stock of all exchanges is still at its lowest level in nearly six years. Currently, there are only 1.7294 million BTC in the exchange addresses of the entire network, which is a decrease of -1,800 BTC compared with yesterday.

The market value has not changed much compared to yesterday, and the price is also in a state of volatility.

2. Trading volume:
The total transaction volume was approximately US$102.58 billion, an increase of approximately -US$26.452 billion compared to yesterday, an increase of approximately -20.50%;
The Bitcoin trading volume was approximately US$37.769 billion, an increase of approximately US$-10.831 billion compared to yesterday, an increase of approximately -22.29%;
Ethereum transaction volume was approximately US$14.565 billion, an increase of approximately -US$4.87 billion compared to yesterday, an increase of approximately -25.06%;
The transaction volume of altcoins (including Ethereum) was approximately US$81.933 billion, an increase of approximately US$16.16 billion compared to yesterday, an increase of approximately 24.57%;

The trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum has decreased significantly compared to yesterday, while the trading volume of altcoins has increased significantly compared to yesterday. When Bitcoin fluctuates, altcoins begin to attract funds. At present, this is a normal market performance.

3. Funding:
The total funds on the market were approximately US$159.307 billion, an increase of approximately US$1.869 billion compared to yesterday, an increase of approximately 1.19%;
USDT: market value is about 109.365 billion US dollars, an increase of about 281 million US dollars yesterday, an increase of about 0.26%; trading volume is about 36.716 billion US dollars, an increase of about -26.923 billion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -42.31%;
USDC: market value is about 33.875 billion US dollars, an increase of about 829 million US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about 2.51%; trading volume is about 8.493 billion US dollars, an increase of about -2.439 billion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of -22.31%;

The on-site fund trading volume has decreased significantly compared to yesterday, which corresponds to the smaller trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

4. Contract data
The total contract holdings of the entire network are about 56.41 billion US dollars, an increase of about -2.18% compared with yesterday;
The total 24-hour contract trading volume of the entire network was approximately US$153.59 billion, an increase of approximately -32.79% compared with yesterday;
The total amount of liquidation in the entire network in 24 hours was about 120 million US dollars, an increase of about -58.62% compared with yesterday;

Among them, the Bitcoin contract holdings were approximately US$31.269 billion, an increase of approximately -2.90% compared to yesterday;
The trading volume of Bitcoin contracts was approximately US$81.516 billion, a decrease of approximately -34.64% compared to yesterday;
The 24-hour liquidation volume of Bitcoin is about 44.2036 million US dollars, an increase of about -58.30% compared with yesterday;
Among them, the long orders were liquidated for about 22.7066 million US dollars, an increase of about -57.26% compared with yesterday;
The short position liquidation was about 21.497 million US dollars, an increase of about -59.53% compared with yesterday;

Judging from the contract data, the open interest, trading volume, and margin calls have all decreased compared to yesterday. Among them, the margin calls of Bitcoin long and short positions have all decreased compared to yesterday.

5. ETF Data
The total trading volume of Bitcoin ETF was approximately US$2.675 billion, an increase of approximately US$-175 million compared to yesterday, an increase of approximately -6.14%;
The total market value of Bitcoin ETF is about 56.403 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of about 620 million U.S. dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about 1.11%;
The total assets under management of Bitcoin ETFs are approximately US$54.208 billion, an increase of approximately US$144 million compared to yesterday, an increase of approximately 0.27%;

The total trading volume of Bitcoin ETF has decreased compared with yesterday, while the total market value and total assets have increased compared with yesterday.