BTC halving… What’s next??
As we all are aware that BTC halving is almost there after few hours. What should be expected out of it?
Let’s look at the history and liquidity pools and try to reach a conclusion. Since BTC is range bound with its dominance at 55.72% as of the writing of this. BTC is holding a current range of 60k-64k hence range bound and positing a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangle can either lead to a break out or a break down, it’s not clear which side it moves as of right now.
We know by experience when BTC dominance goes up, alts falls. As written in previous posts BTC dominance is expected to go high max upto 60% due to euphoria of retail and then it will fall back to its normal level of 50%, when alts will make a move.
Looking at the history, in my humble opinion, is more of buy the rumor sell the news event just like ETF approval news, people went all in blindly and lost it all, spot are still underwater for most of holders. BTC will move upside to 67k-72k levels where institutional investors and whales will dump it on masses which they bought at 15-20-30k, after than BTC is bound to go down to sweep the liquidity pools under 60k level. It is expected to touch down to 57k level where it will create a local bottom, but in case of capitulation event a move to 52k can’t be ruled out. On the higher side late shots will be liquidated and on the low side late longs will be liquidated. As on average BTC makes an ATH after an average of 500 days after halving. Below is the chart showing what happens after halving.. in the chart blue vertical lines are halving dates, yellow is ATH and green is return on investment (ROI). So please don’t get too much euphoric about halving, don’t use too much leverage in hopes of getting rich over night and don’t short as it’s late to short now and also involves liquidation risk. Manage your risk and have patience. Never catch falling knife, it cuts both ways !!
Cheers !!
