4.17 Market Analysis
BTC will be halved on Saturday, and BTC is currently barely holding $63,000
After Powell's speech last night, there was a small rebound.
Powell reiterated in his speech that there is no progress in inflation and postponed the interest rate cut. We have analyzed before that according to the current economic data, the interest rate cut may not be until November this year.
Powell caused panic before speaking, and it was in line with expectations after speaking, so there was a rebound. It is not good news, nor is it a big negative.
In the past three days, the Israeli wartime cabinet has been meeting to discuss how to fight Iran. It is not about whether to fight or not, but how to fight🤕
The Chairman of the Israeli Defense said: I hope Iran can understand that continued mutual attacks are not in their interests. We are not interested in starting a full-scale war, nor are we seeking revenge, we are responding.
It seems that they hope to keep things quiet, but they still have to fight for face.
But it is not a big fight, but a small fight.
So when will they fight a small fight?
The Jewish Passover lasts until April 30th. In order to take care of everyone during the holiday, it is estimated that there will be a small-scale conflict in May after the holiday.
Inflation has been high recently, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has dropped to the freezing point. We have just experienced the peak of the Israeli-Iranian conflict.
At the same time, the on-chain data shows that the BTC inventory in the exchange is still declining. Now is the most pessimistic and panic time. Therefore, we conclude that the current BTC price should be the short-term bottom in the near future.
The positions that you asked everyone to buy the bottom two days ago should be held patiently. The recommended position is 5 layers. The brothers who are trapped should be patient and wait for the rebound. There is no big problem with spot.
