I recommend a great person who wrote this year's macroeconomic forecast: There will be a global financial storm around May
The following are my derivation basis and steps: Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the real economic level of major economies in the world has performed poorly, and since entering 2022, most major economies have followed the pace of US interest rate hikes and started to raise interest rates. At this time, the macroeconomic performance of developed countries that raise interest rates should be a decline in exchange rates, bonds and stocks, while developing countries that raise interest rates will face a decline in exchange rates, bonds and stocks, and the macroeconomic performance of countries that do not follow the US interest rate hike should be a triple kill of stocks, exchange rates and bonds.
But in fact, except for China, basically all major economies have ushered in a stock market surge that deviates from the actual economic level in 2023, as shown in the figure below. At this time, there are two explanations: one is the well-known "one whale falls and all things come to life", that is, China's economic decline and industrial chain transfer have given other countries the opportunity to take off economically.
But there is another explanation, that is, after the United States began to raise interest rates, domestic capital in the United States found that the situation of foreign investors buying U.S. Treasury bonds and investing in the U.S. stock market was not optimistic. In addition to raising interest rates, various means were used to maintain the stability of their own stock markets in order to prevent the return of funds to the United States, which caused the collapse of domestic assets and triggered a triple kill of stocks, bonds and currencies. The landmark event was that the U.S. short-selling agency Hindenburg shorted India's Adani, and the Indian government's desperate protection of Adani led to the failure of the short-selling.
Then domestic capital in the United States came up with another way. With the advantage of exchange rate, hot money went overseas and went long on the stock markets of various countries together with domestic capital in various countries. This was reflected in the tight domestic funds in the United States, and the price of reverse repurchase of treasury bonds and the yield of long-end treasury bonds soared all the way; at the same time, AI themes pushed up the stock prices of high-tech enterprise constituent stocks in the stock market indexes of various countries, and then Japan's recovery and the surge in the Japanese stock market and other financial news about the rise in stock markets in various countries began to be widely promoted to ordinary people, inciting ordinary people in various countries to start taking over and continue to push up the stock market.
While domestic capital in the United States used hot money to push up the stock markets of various countries to obtain huge profits, it only faced one problem, that is, the exchange rate difference. To put it simply, the United States cannot cut interest rates before its biggest rival, the European Central Bank, cuts interest rates. The United States must suppress Japan and prevent it from adjusting its YCC policy before it cuts interest rates. The interest rate cut cycle of other developing countries will definitely be affected by domestic capital in the United States.In this way, the US dollar can flow back to the United States as much as possible before the end of this round of interest rate hike cycle. With the withdrawal of hot money in the US dollar and the increasing funding gap filled by ordinary people and domestic institutions in various countries, it will inevitably lead to the collapse of stock markets in various countries and return to normal, and asset prices will fall all the way. However, the US dollar, US stocks and US bonds are still strong because of the return of hot money, which makes funds from various countries turn around and flow into the United States together, resulting in a triple kill of stocks, bonds and currencies in various countries, repeating the situation of the Asian financial crisis in 1997. At this time, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and expands its balance sheet, releasing a large amount of hot money to the outside world, and begins to acquire high-quality assets in various countries at a low price.
So why do I predict that there will be a financial crisis around May? Because I predicted that the European Central Bank will start to cut interest rates in April, then under the modern monetary theory system, as long as the central government is willing to release liquidity and add leverage to individuals and enterprises, there will be no risk of falling domestic asset prices in the short term, so US domestic capital will inevitably begin to withdraw to the United States around May, starting from developing countries and all the way to trigger a financial crisis in Europe, where its actual economic performance is the worst, so as to maximize benefits.
Today, the eurozone money market has fully priced in the ECB's interest rate cut in April, so I have the courage to write this seemingly absurd prediction.
There are three possibilities for this global financial crisis:
1. The United States harvests the world
2. The short-selling of Hong Kong in the 1997 financial crisis failed, and the United States only harvested some developing and developed countries, because from the opening of visas between China and ASEAN countries, especially Singapore, and the increase in cooperation in the past few months, China has the possibility of keeping Southeast Asian countries.
3. The United States fails to harvest the world, triggering its own national debt crisis and leading to an economic crisis.
[To sum up, it is the conspiracy of the United States, harvesting the world through the US dollar and financial markets]
#热门文章