It has only been two days since the wash, and many people are now asking fearfully whether the bull market has ended?
History will not repeat itself, but it is surprisingly similar every time. Let's take historical data as an example. According to the data of the past three waves of cycles, Bitcoin will reach the highest point of the cycle 1-1.5 years after each halving. Today is still 3 days away from the halving, and the halving has not yet started. Those who say that the bull market has ended can be regarded as living leeks. This wave of cycles not only has Bitcoin halving, but also has the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and there is unlimited buying of spot ETFs. How can the current bull market be over? Those who can't hold on for two or three days of washing should withdraw from the circle as soon as possible, otherwise they will only lose more and more in the future. Every callback is a good opportunity to buy.
According to the data in the table below, we can see that in the first wave of cycles, the highest point on the day of halving increased by 88.23 times, the second wave of cycles was 30.56 times, and the third wave of cycles was 7.87 times. Based on these historical data, we infer that the increase from halving to the highest point of this cycle is 7.87/(88.23/30.56+30.56/7.87)/2=2.04 times. If the halving price is $65,000 three days later, the peak of this cycle should be around $130,000.
However, this cycle is quite special and completely caught up with the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, so I simply predict that the peak BTC price of this cycle will be $140,000-200,000, and the peak time will be (367+523+544)/3=478 days after halving, which is around August 2025.
I look forward to completing this table together in more than a year.
