[Daily Market Overview]#BTCclosed at $63452 on Monday. After being affected by the news last night, it fell further with the Nasdaq, but the price did not break a new low and was still fluctuating in the large range of 61000-73800;

(Figure 1)

Technical aspect:

By comparing the performance of the price rebounding after two pullbacks at the lower edge of the range, we can clearly see that demand is weakening;

The K-line color in the figure is drawn based on the VCI indicator. The higher the trading volume, the darker the color, and vice versa, the lighter the color, the lower the trading volume;

As shown on the left side of the above figure, when the price first touched the lower edge of the range, a long real positive line with volume appeared in a short period of time, indicating that the demand near the lower edge of the range was strong. The subsequent pullback showed 4 4h long lower shadows, indicating that the demand has not withdrawn and the supply has been consumed;

The rebound after the price pulled back to the lower edge of the range this time showed an overall shrinkage, which means that the demand at the lower edge of the range is not as strong as the first rebound. Subsequently, when the price continued to pull back to above 62000, no obvious price pattern appeared;

Therefore, from a technical point of view, when the price correction further touches the lower edge of the range, the probability of falling below the lower edge of the 61,000 range has increased significantly;

So one point is given to the shorts;

Liquidity level:

There is no obvious long liquidity magnetic area below the current market. For a week, the main liquidity magnetic area has been concentrated at 71,700, totaling 1.45 billion US dollars;

(Figure 2)

Considering that the funding rate of the current futures market is still at a very low level (less than 0.01% on average), the attraction of the short liquidity magnetic area above the market is much stronger;

However, one thing to note is that the main supplier that caused the price to fall before came from the spot, so there will be a situation where the short liquidity will fall without clearing. After all, the weight of the spot for pricing is higher than that of the futures;

If the negative news from the news is released, such as Israel has completed its military retaliation goals and Iran has endured it, then this part of the spot safe-haven supply will be weakened, and the market will return to the state dominated by futures, that is, the shock washing trend will go to where the liquidity is strong.

Therefore, before the negative impact of the news ends, the impact of futures liquidity on prices is not strong, so no score will be given for the time being;

On-chain data:

In recent days, the net inflow of miners has shrunk overall, but there has been a relatively continuous sell-off, with an average of 2,000 BTC spot transferred to the exchange every day;

(Figure 3)

In addition to miners, on-chain transfer data shows that retail investors are still continuing to buy BTC in small amounts (less than 1 coin), but their overall demand cannot even take over the supply from miners, so the current market demand is very weak from the perspective of funding sources;

Therefore, add one point to the shorts;

ETFs net inflow data:

Since last Friday, ETFs net inflow data has always remained negative;

(Figure 4)

In addition, a strange phenomenon appeared in all ETF data; The only net inflow party is BlackRock's ETF, while all other long-side ETFs maintain a value of 0. What is even more disturbing is that Grayscale's net outflow is always higher than BlackRock's net inflow, and the swap operations between the two ETFs are very frequent;

We can therefore speculate that the current multi-party ETFs (including BlackRock) have actually completely stopped buying and increasing their holdings, and part of the net inflows we see are likely to come entirely from Grayscale's outflows.

As shown in the above figure, if the net inflow and outflow data of BlackRock and Grayscale are subtracted by 73.4 at the same time, the ETF data we see will become that the net inflows of multi-party ETFs are all 0, and only Grayscale has a net outflow of 36.7;

ETF funds mainly come from US dollar cash. Under the current monetary policy and the postponement of interest rate cut expectations, there has indeed been a certain degree of liquidity depletion, so one point is given to shorts;

To sum up

Long: 42

Short: 42

Long-short difference: 0

The long-short difference drops to 0, which means that the current game between the long and short sides of the market has entered a zero boundary point of a change. The next focus should be on which side can have new reinforcements and bring decisive power.

That's all.

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