My bull market is over, at least temporarily.
In fact, at this previous high, I was very optimistic that there would be another wave of main upward trend. I think this is also the view of most people. If the bull market ends at this position, I always feel that something is missing.
In terms of the overall environment, there are generally no major problems, but there are also small hidden dangers. The halving is still a few days away, but I don’t think this factor has much impact, after all, it is completely clear. The interest rate cut has been postponed to September again. It has been postponed before, but the US stock market has been rising continuously, and has risen a lot. Can it continue to rise before the interest rate cut? It seems that it has stopped rising recently. Another possibility is that a larger-scale war may break out, but it seems unlikely at present.
Although the market environment has not deteriorated, the recent correction has exceeded my expectations and formed what I think is a top pattern. Of course, this is just my opinion. After all, I often think wrong. I had a plan before. Once the top pattern is formed, I will leave. So, at this position, I don’t want to take too much risk. I abide by the discipline and leave first. There may be a big rise in the future, but it has nothing to do with me. Unfortunately, it did not reach the height I expected.
After leaving the market, if the price really goes up, never chase it. If there is a monthly level adjustment, you can consider buying the bottom at an appropriate position.
I started investing in October 2022, with the highest purchase price being around RMB 30,000. It has been about a year and a half, and I have a few experiences:
1. Buy when no one is interested. When I started the fixed investment, the market had already experienced a significant decline and a long period of decline, and it was very depressed. Not long after the fixed investment, the FTX incident occurred, and there was a wave of sharp declines. In hindsight, it was the last wave of sharp declines in the bear market. Although some crypto institutions collapsed and there was a fud on Binance later, the market had stopped falling.
2. Make regular investments instead of going all-in. Regular investments are good for averaging costs, and more importantly, they can stabilize your mindset. If you go all-in and encounter the FTX incident, even if you look at the bottom afterwards, you will definitely be panicked at the time, and it is hard to say whether you can hold on.
3. Discipline is the most important thing. Don’t be swayed by market fluctuations or the size of your position. In the later stage of fixed investment, I already had more than 80% of my position, so I didn’t strictly abide by discipline. I didn’t buy when I should have. First, I felt that my position was too large, and second, I was afraid of further declines, so I wanted to keep some cash and wait for a bigger decline before buying. In hindsight, I missed the last buying opportunity before the rally.
4. You must go against the noise of the market. When I bought, the market was very quiet and unpopular. Although it rose later, most people thought it was a bear market rebound. I remember that it was at least above 40,000 before some people judged it as a bull market, and there were still people predicting the last drop before the bull market. To be honest, it is too difficult to judge the bull and bear market first and then operate. The risk is too great. Either you want to wait for a lower price at a low level, or you stand guard at a high level.
I will remember this much for now. I will continue to add more when I have more experience in the future. The volatility in the cryptocurrency market is so great. Volatility is both an opportunity and a risk. We must remain awed.
