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Weekly Review
This week, from April 8 to April 15, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $72,797 and the lowest price was close to $60,660, with a fluctuation range of about 16.7%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 65,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 640,000 pieces;
64000-68000: about 1.54 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
The overall CPI annual rate in March was 3.5%, higher than the expected value of 3.40% and higher than the previous value of 3.20%.
The core CP1 annual rate in March was 3.8%, higher than the expected value of 3.70% and the same as the previous value of 3.80%.
The U.S. CP1 annual rate was 3.5% in March, the highest level since September 2023.
The date of the Fed's first rate cut, which was fully digested by the interest rate swap market, has been postponed to November, and bets on a rate cut in June have almost disappeared, firmly consolidating expectations of only two rate cuts this year.
JPMorgan said the divergence between the Fed and other central bank pricing appears to be widening, and a lot could change between now and June, with a shift to easier monetary policy likely to be delayed by at least a few months.
The European Central Bank maintained interest rates at 4.5% at its interest rate meeting.
ECB board member Stournaras said it was time to part ways with the Federal Reserve and reiterated his call for four rate cuts by 2024;
Governing Council member Kazaks: The time for interest rate cut is approaching, and if nothing unexpected happens, the interest rate will be cut in June.
ING Bank said Thursday's meeting should be the last stop before the ECB cuts interest rates.
Encrypted ecological news
U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren said that the stablecoin bill passed the House Financial Services Committee in the summer and is currently deadlocked. Warren urged members of the House of Representatives to be aware of the significance of the risks when considering proposals to regulate stablecoins and to avoid introducing stablecoin legislation that could trigger another financial crisis.
South Africa has begun issuing licenses to cryptocurrency firms, with the country’s regulator planning to approve around 60 digital asset companies by April.
Bloomberg: Hong Kong will approve BTC and ETH spot ETFs as early as next Monday.
Brian Dixon, CEO of investment firm Off the Chain Capital, said: ETF demand has already had an impact on market supply. Once the halving occurs, the supply will be further reduced and it is logical for prices to rise.
David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, said: This round of rise is the first time that BTC has broken through its historical high before the halving. Some people are worried that the ETF has boosted demand in advance and will linger at the current level for a while.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
High quality selling pressure
On-chain chip growth and destruction
Short-term holder costs
(Figure below: high-quality selling pressure)
High-quality selling pressure began to decline, and the market returned to moderate selling pressure.
This means that the risk of overall downward market volatility may gradually decrease.
(The following figure shows the growth and destruction of chips on the chain)
Although the market is still in the midst of various explosion environments for derivatives and most people in the market are on the sidelines, there are still more net chips on the chain growing.
From the current perspective, the market still has strong growth momentum.
(The figure below shows the cost of short-term holders)
The role of short-term holder costs in the medium and even long term is very critical. Historically, the market's many bull market pullbacks have always touched this price level.
In a bear market, the market's stage top always touches this price level and then falls.
The current cost for short-term holders is around 59,000.
The cost of short-term holders reflects the psychology of short-term participants. Below this key price, short-term market participants will no longer make profits and may even suffer losses.
Generally speaking, short-term participants are reluctant to sell unprofitable positions without any emotional catharsis or despair.
Currently, the main participants in the market are basically short-term participants.
Therefore, the cost of short-term holders plays a very critical role.
Mid-term exploration
Short-term sentiment components
Stablecoin total supply
Accumulation trend points
Positive sentiment on the Internet
(The figure below shows the composition of short-term sentiment)
Red line: 1 day to 1 week position status
Blue line: 1-2 years of holdings
Judging from the recent situation, the holdings of ultra-short-term participants have weakened, and they will currently face a temporary lack of new forces.
The holdings of long-term participants are also decreasing. There may be a short-term lack of buying power in the market, and it may still be in the rectification stage.
(Figure below shows the total supply of stablecoins)
Stablecoins have been experiencing a pause in their growth, a situation that has lasted for a week.
There may be a temporary stagnation in the supply of purchasing power in the market.
(The following figure shows the accumulation trend)
The accumulation of addresses has slowed down and the current situation is close to January and February 2024.
The market as a whole is in a rhythm of various sizes of buying and waiting. It may take some time to adjust to this state.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
The overall trading sentiment is still in the repair stage and may take time to adjust.
The recent situation is mostly due to the fact that buying is in a non-active state, which may take some time.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the neutral area. Derivatives have a high risk.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
Last week, the risk factor went up in the short term and a large amount of long squeeze was directly carried out. From the perspective of the current risk factor, the risk factor is in the neutral area, which means that there is also some room for short squeeze. It is expected that there may still be a two-way liquidation of derivatives this week.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
The put ratio and option trading volume have not changed much compared with last week and are at a moderate level.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Last week, we mentioned that the market was close to a change, but the market quickly corrected afterwards. The current derivatives trading volume is at a medium-low level, and the derivatives activity is average, with no major change expected.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
As the market corrects, there has been a large short-term increase in implied volatility.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The cost of short-term holders has not changed much for two consecutive weeks, indicating that the market's buying enthusiasm has been insufficient recently, and it is currently still around 59K.
In addition, the positive sentiment and panic sentiment in this pullback are both continuing to spread, indicating that the current BTC holders in the market have not panicked and sold, which leaves enough room for another change in the market in the future.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at medium-low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: The overall situation is in a state of accumulated outflow, and the selling pressure is relatively low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
Although the outflow rate has slowed down and there is a small amount of inflow, the overall outflow is still in a state of accumulation.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
The second cake is also currently in an outflow accumulation state.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
As of now, there is no high-weight selling pressure in this market correction.
Purchasing power rating: Compared to the massive drop in global purchasing power last week, the purchasing power of stablecoins remained basically the same.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
Currently, global purchasing power is in a state of massive loss.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT net position remained flat overall.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 61,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60,000 and 61,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000, 72,000, and 74,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 60000, 61000, and 62000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000 and 72,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 60,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000 and 72,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
From the perspective of experience cycle:
"The positive news of halving the bitcoin price has turned into negative news", this sentence has always been true.
The same goes for the first two cycles (halving, negative decline), and after the halving, it enters a new market.
Of course, almost all market trends so far have revolved around interest rate cuts (new highs in gold, new highs in US stocks, new highs in cryptocurrencies, etc.).
April is an unstable period due to the halving, and the market is likely to start to pick up or rebound in May.
In June, the European Central Bank took the lead in starting a monetary easing cycle, and the Federal Reserve will take over later by easing monetary policy.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last week showed: "Almost all participants believed that a rate cut this year would be appropriate; the Federal Reserve tended to reduce the monthly balance sheet reduction by about half."
That said, the good news is that there will at least be a rate cut this year, it’s just a matter of when.
Judging from further data, the market has begun to digest the reduced probability of a rate cut in June.
Bets on a rate cut in June have dissipated, with swaps markets judging by a delay to September that fully prices in a Fed rate cut.
The market rose too quickly, and became anxious too quickly when faced with uncertainty. The current stage is very emotional, and it may take some time to digest and sort out the situation.
On-chain long-term insights:
The high-quality selling pressure begins to decline and returns to medium selling pressure, which means that the overall selling pressure in the market will have less and less impact on the market;
The chips on the chain are still growing in net amount, and the original momentum of the market is still strong;
In the short term, the cost is only around 59,000, which is often the key price for reversals and corrections in bull and bear markets;
Market setting:
Selling pressure has decreased and market momentum is still accumulating.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The power of new buyers in the market has weakened;
Stablecoins have seen slightly stagnant growth;
The accumulation of each address weakened;
Trading sentiment is still repairing and adjusting.
Market setting:
Repair and adjustment
There is a wait-and-see attitude in the market, and the overall situation is in a state of repair and adjustment.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the neutral area. The risk of derivatives is relatively high.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a relatively low level.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange showed an accumulated outflow state, with low selling pressure.
Global purchasing power has dropped significantly compared to last week, while the purchasing power of stablecoins has remained basically the same.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 61,000 and a willingness to sell at 70,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Market setting:
Although the market has corrected, there has been no panic selling, and the overall market sentiment remains neutral. Short-term chips are still accumulating near the 65K price, but the overall purchasing power of the current market is insufficient. It is expected that derivatives liquidation may still occur this week, and the probability of an extreme downward break below the cost line of short-term holders is still low.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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