On the eve of the release of CPI data, the market remained calm and market changes were subtle. Everything has not yet led to the worst outcome. Don't be pessimistic!
Hi, girls and boys, welcome to Uncle Cat’s crypto world.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced around 70,700. Bitcoin's rebound in the early hours of Monday was blocked and fell back, and it is currently stabilizing above 70,000.
The technical adjustments have made the short-term support stronger. We should pay attention to the key support situation to view the future trend of the market.
On the eve of the release of CPI, Wall Street continued to wait and see, which had the first impact on the crypto market. However, we can see subtle changes in the data. At present, all the data have not directly led to the worst results. Don't be overly pessimistic. In this garbage time, watch more and do less, and compete with patience.
Bitcoin disk analysis:
Bitcoin started a rebound in the early hours of Monday morning, successfully touched the resistance level of the daily line and then fell back. It is currently stabilizing and fluctuating above 70,000. The daily Bollinger Bands are gradually shrinking. According to the current trend, as long as it stabilizes above 70,000, the probability of the daily Bollinger Bands shrinking and breaking upward will be greater.
Currently, affected by the macro-economy, the sentiment in the risk market is relatively depressed.
The short-term resistance levels are 72,300, 72,600, and 73,000, which come from the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily resistance levels. The successful breakthrough of each resistance level depends on the situation of the next one.
To break through the daily line, we need to look at the previous historical high, and then the 77,300 resistance level from the weekly line. Of course, once the weekly resistance level is reached, it means that another wave of surge is coming. However, the upward movement of the key resistance level also relieves the pressure on the subsequent rise in Bitcoin prices in the short term.
Currently, Bitcoin has stabilized around 70,000. Let’s take a look at the support below.
Today's support situation is quite special. The technical support below forms an effective support range due to the compression of the Bollinger Bands. There will be a needle-piercing amplitude in the range.
Currently, Bitcoin is hovering near the first support yesterday, and it has effectively broken through and rebounded again. Because this support level is close to the support range below, the support effect is significantly weakened. We will ignore this support level for the time being.
The first support, 69,000-70,000, is a short-term support, and the support is general. This support is a support range formed by different degrees of technical support brought by 1 hour, 4 hours and daily lines. Because the support positions of various technical indicators are close, we directly regard it as a support range.
The second support, 68,500, is a short-term support with strong support. This support is effectively supported by the daily 4-hour EMA200, the daily Bollinger Band middle line, the 3-day EMA7 and the weekly EMA7. This support is strong and is also the support level of the daily short-term trend. This position will determine whether the price will continue to fall after falling back.
The third support, 66,500, is a short-term support with strong support. This support is provided by the upper line of the monthly Bollinger Band. If the second support determines whether the short-term decline of the daily line will continue, then the third support determines the entire decline above 60,000. If the monthly support is broken, the downward pressure will be greater, and the risk of continued decline will also be greater.
We can see last week that Bitcoin did not fall below the key support level in the upper and middle parts, so the price rebounded after stabilizing.
The technical results we get are still optimistic enough. Although the price has fallen back after reaching the high support, the decline has stabilized above 70,000. In the past two weeks, most of Bitcoin was consolidating and fluctuating above 65,000. Now the fluctuation range has moved up, and fluctuation also means turnover. As long as there is no negative news that falls below this position, it will be more conducive to the short-term bottoming of Bitcoin prices here. It will also help the price rebound later.
In particular, we noticed that the long-term shock, rebound, and shock, and the continuous upward movement of the technical support below are conducive to helping the price stabilize sentiment again.
The RSI relative strength index has now fallen back to 60, compared to yesterday's position of 69. The decline in the index represents a buffer for investor sentiment in the current short-term decline of Bitcoin. A further decline in the index will be conducive to triggering buying power in the future market.
Market dynamics and funding changes:
(The data is real-time data. If there are major changes in the short-term market, the data will be significantly biased.)
The current market value is 278.6 million, a decrease of 38 billion compared to yesterday.
The market value of Bitcoin is 139.18 billion, which is 23.8 billion less than yesterday.
Ethereum's market value is 435.88 billion, a decrease of 2.28 billion compared to yesterday.
The total market value increased by 38 billion, Bitcoin and Ethereum decreased by 26.08 billion, and the rest was the market value drop of 11.92 billion for copycats.
Bitcoin accounts for 50% of the market, which is 10 basis points lower than yesterday; Ethereum accounts for 15.6%, which is 10 basis points higher than yesterday; and altcoin accounts for 34.4%, which remains unchanged compared with yesterday.
In terms of trading volume:
The total transaction volume is 112.2 billion, an increase of 3.5 billion compared to yesterday.
Bitcoin 30.03 billion, a decrease of 740 million compared to yesterday's trading volume.
Ethereum 19.04 billion, an increase of 980 million compared to yesterday's transaction volume.
The total transaction volume of Shanzhai is 63.13 billion, an increase of 3.27 billion compared with yesterday.
Funding:
The total on-site funds were 155.5 billion, with the on-site funds remaining unchanged compared to yesterday. The funds accounted for 5.58%, an increase of 7 basis points compared to yesterday.
USDT: Market value of 106.95 billion, an increase of 110 million US dollars compared to yesterday; trading volume of 473.5 billion, an increase of 0.08%.
USDC: Market value of 32.585 billion, a decrease of 15 million US dollars compared to yesterday; trading volume of 6.7 billion, an increase of 1.5%
Looking at today's market data as a whole, although the market value has declined, there is no need to be too pessimistic.
The main reason for the decline in market value is still Bitcoin, followed by the altcoin market driven by the decline in Bitcoin. The decline in market value is not large and is within normal data. Moreover, Ethereum is particularly strong and continues to grow in the mayor's share. Ethereum does show signs of recovery.
In terms of trading volume, with the slight decline of Bitcoin, the trading volume has decreased slightly year-on-year. It seems that above 70,000 Bitcoin is not a reasonable buying range, so the current first support is more important. In this rebound, Ethereum encountered a resistance level that triggered a buy order, so today's trading volume has increased slightly compared with yesterday. As the overall altcoin market fell driven by Bitcoin, the trading volume also increased, and the buying sentiment of the altcoin was still good.
In terms of funds, the market has resumed net inflows, with a single-day net inflow of 95 million. The Asian market has a single-day net inflow, while the US market is still in a net outflow state, but compared with the net outflow data on Monday, it is much less. As for the overall market status, the funds retained in the market remain unchanged, and today's single-day net inflow of 9,500 directly participated in the transaction.
Regarding US funds, I think the main reason is that the depressed macroeconomic sentiment has hindered the inflow of funds. We will continue to track the flow of US funds tomorrow. As long as the outflow decreases or even turns into inflow, the impact on the market will not be too great.
Through today's data, we can clearly see that the overall market remains in a sluggish state. It seems that the current wait-and-see sentiment of the U.S. stock market regarding Wednesday's CPI data has directly affected the trading sentiment of the crypto market.
Macroeconomics and news:
Currently, the entire US risk market is showing a cautious state, with reduced bets on the stock market and futures market, and everyone is waiting for the release of CPI data tomorrow.
I also said yesterday that the CPI data is actually not the best data for reference inflation. However, because the Federal Reserve officials were too hawkish in their speeches last week, if inflation pressure emerges, expectations for interest rate cuts will be greatly reduced. There may not be a rate cut for 24 years, but it is possible to reduce the magnitude and frequency of rate cuts.
In fact, the abnormal data and the Fed's hawkish speeches seem to be advance preparations before the rate cut. We have said before that once the market anticipates the Fed's rate cut, it will bring about certain changes in the trajectory of the US economy and risk markets.
First of all, the economy. The current US economic data is overheated. In fact, it is not the manufacturing industry that brings economic growth, and it is not even the main industry of most industries. The same is true for employment data. In other words, once the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, the economy will be stimulated again. The economy may overheat, leading to increased inflationary pressure. Therefore, it is a good thing to cool down the economy before actually implementing a rate cut.
Secondly, the investment market will react in advance because of the expected interest rate cut, interest rate expectations will be lowered, and the investment return ratio will be lowered, which will lead to a weakening of risk market sentiment. We have said before that the stock market and many risk markets are the reservoirs for the Fed's interest rate cut. If the water in the reservoir flows out in advance before the interest rate cut actually comes, this is also an unwanted result for the Fed.
So again, we can no longer reasonably judge the Fed's interest rate cuts through data and speeches. On the contrary, data and speeches may try to disrupt market expectations. And there is a situation where the Fed uses data or speeches to suppress the market's optimistic expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the more it is prepared to cut interest rates.
At the same time, we should also pay attention to the recent visits of the US Treasury Secretary and others. As mentioned before, the United States is using high interest rates to launch a dimensionality reduction attack on the global economy, and the core focus is the village. If bilateral relations ease and the United States feels that its established goals have been achieved, then it will also be conducive to lowering interest rates as soon as possible.
After all, with high interest rates, the United States is also playing with fire. Either everything will be destroyed, or you will compromise under high pressure and I will cut interest rates. In fact, from a macro perspective, both options seem to be most beneficial to the United States itself.
As long as tomorrow's CPI data is not higher than the previous value, as long as it proves that the united front work is effective, or even remains the same as the previous value, it is a state of data negative but actually positive. However, it is not ruled out that, like last week, the employment data will continue to suppress the market's optimistic view on interest rate cuts. If it is higher than the previous value, the inflation work will be hindered, and the expectation of interest rate cuts will be greatly weakened again. If this action occurs, the Fed's real interest rate cut may really be not far away.
In terms of geopolitics, the United States has basically tried to get out of the Red Sea recently. Everyone has already seen the relevant news. This state of contraction is surprising, and it also shows that the United States is currently under tremendous pressure. Therefore, effectively reducing its own risk losses in the conflict is the best option.
Regarding the crypto market news, the United States and South Korea are currently hot topics in the crypto market. The U.S. Treasury Department is trying to increase its control over cryptocurrencies, with the view that it is to prevent illegal activities. In fact, gaining control has always been a habit of the United States.
On the other hand, in the South Korean general election, the two core competing parties have basically made public their policies on cryptocurrencies, whether it is delaying crypto taxation or encouraging restrictions on holding Bitcoin ETF assets. It seems that supporting the crypto market has become politically correct in South Korea.
Given the current situation, it is estimated that the risk market and crypto market will still end dismally tonight, pending the release of data tomorrow, Wednesday.
Market summary:
For the current market situation, it is temporarily garbage time. Contract traders are better off watching rather than operating. Comprehensively assess the current situation. The entire market is waiting for tomorrow's CPI data. Once the data has a small probability of rising, it will stimulate the market in the short term. Therefore, the risk of the contract will still be very high. You can place an expected order at a reasonable position and wait for the needle.
In terms of spot, the second key support is currently under consideration. If it is broken, Bitcoin will continue to face the risk of falling. As for the third support, once it is broken, the spot position must be reasonably controlled. Once the market breaks, I will promptly adjust the position according to the situation.
At present, the United States is greatly affected by macroeconomic sentiment and is still experiencing a net outflow of funds. However, the overall result is not getting worse and the outflow of funds has decreased. We will further observe the changes in funds after the data is released tomorrow.
In summary, watch more and do less, just wait for tomorrow's data to be released. At present, don't pay much attention to the rhythm of bearish sentiment, because from the technical perspective or market dynamics, there is no clear bearish signal, so don't be overly pessimistic. Continue to compete with patience.
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