April 7 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

The rebound rhythm is faster than expected, and the implied volatility of the options market has not yet exploded

I. Core Views:

1-The recent directional views are the same as the previous tweets, unchanged

2-This week is a key week for halving, and the implied volatility of the options market is still restrained. Combined with other major events such as halving, April is very critical, and it is time to choose the general direction

3-The window period for the layout of the Shanzhai layout to do more volatility strategy

II. Spot

BTC and ETH As expected, the spot price rebounded, and I also gave a reminder in the private tutoring group the day before yesterday.

Sol has two negative events in the short term, and the price has fallen slightly. There is no need to pay special attention to short-term price changes. I will not make similar proportional spreads or inverse proportional spreads to bet on short-term declines for profit.

Our option strategies are all repeatable in the long term.

3. Implied volatility

During the general direction selection period, try to short volatility on the early call side as little as possible.

4. Macro

U.S. stocks:

The U.S. non-farm data on April 5 is generally negative for the market, that is, the number of unemployed people is lower than expected. Look at the dot plot, but the probability of interest rate cuts has been postponed, which is also clearly seen from the TMF reaction.

In addition, in addition to the high-certainty target of U.S. bonds in the U.S. stock market recently, we have also dug up a high-certainty target of 3-5 times in the next two years.