The recent all-time high of #Bitcoin could mean that #halving is already discounted
The question of whether the bitcoin halving has a fixed price is raised endlessly each time it occurs, often with little resolution. However, according to Coinbase analysts, there is data that allows us to affirm that this time it has occurred.
"This is the first halving cycle in which bitcoin surpasses its all-time high before the halving, which could mean that the effect has already been priced in by expert traders," said David Duong and David Han, analysts at Coinbase, in a note sent to The Block.
However, the analysts also added that there is still a collective belief that the halving could drive prices higher, "which could lead to behavior that results in a rally."
YouHolder risk manager Sergei Gorev agreed that any potential appreciation in bitcoin value resulting from the halving may have already been factored into the market. He added that the recent decline in bitcoin price could indicate that traders are taking profits in anticipation of increased volatility leading to the next halving event.
"As the next Bitcoin halving approaches, the current quote dynamics actually indicate that more and more cryptocurrency holders believe that the halving is already included in the price. The Bitcoin price drop "Tuesday means that investors are taking profits ahead of the event. However, so far the downward movement looks more like a correction than a trend," Gorev told The Block.
A recent report from Coinbase Institutional also noted that forecasting bitcoin price appreciation after the halving is problematic because there is "only a small sample size from just three previous halvings which makes it difficult to definitively predict what to expect."