Note: The original text comes from Crypto News, written by Hongji Feng!

The Bitcoin halving is a major event in the cryptocurrency space, marking a shift for block players, institutions, and the market as a whole. The Bitcoin halving plan occurs approximately every four years, and this time it is expected to be implemented in April this year. At that time, the mining reward will be halved, and the supply of Bitcoin will also be directly affected. This is a core of the long-term value preservation of Bitcoin. .

In an interview with Cryptonews, venture capitalist William Quigley, who is also the co-founder of stablecoin issuer Tether and NFT platform WAX Blockchain, delved into the broader implications of Bitcoin’s halving. Quigley elaborated on the complexities of Bitcoin’s halving and its direct impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially on block players and individual investors.

Bitcoin price will reach $300,000 by the end of 2025

Quigley first talked about Bitcoin price predictions after the halving and elaborated on how the market will adjust to this event based on past records.

Quigley said: "Based on historical data, the price of Bitcoin will rise in the months after Bitcoin halving. The first halving was in November 2012, when the price of Bitcoin rose from the previous $12. It increased 100 times to US$1,200. During the second halving, it increased from US$650 to US$20,000, an increase of approximately 30 times. During the third halving, it increased from US$8,500 to approximately US$19,500, an increase of 8 times.”

Although the price of Bitcoin has been surging since the halving event, Quigley pointed out that the multiples of its increase have been decreasing, from 100 times, to 30 times, and recently to 8 times. "So, this time the increase may be 4 times, 3 times." He predicted. If the price of Bitcoin recovers to the $70,000 level before April 20, a 4-fold increase could bring its price to more than $300,000.

Quigley also combined historical statistics after previous halvings and said that it will take Bitcoin about 500 days to 18 months to reach its next all-time high, which will be in October 2025 after the fourth halving event.

Impact of Bitcoin Halving on Blockchain Participants and Investors

The cryptocurrency veteran went on to analyze the impact that the Bitcoin halving will have on Bitcoin block participants, individual investors, and financial institutions.

“In order for Bitcoin to continue to work the way it should, we need to reduce the daily supply of Bitcoin,” Quigley said. “So starting [around] April 20th, we’re going to go from 900 Bitcoins per day to 450.”

By then, the reduction in Bitcoin block rewards will bring huge challenges and opportunities to block participants. “A few months ago, the price of Bitcoin was around $40,000, and most Bitcoin block participants were profitable... At $67,000 today, their profits are very significant,” Quigley said.

Even though a surge in Bitcoin prices could boost profitability for blockchain operations, competition could rise accordingly as more industry players look to benefit from the rally.

For individual investors, the halving event presents a delicate landscape. Quigley's advice favors long-term investment. Quigley emphasized that unlike traditional companies that achieve profitability and release new products, Bitcoin is an open-source platform maintained and used by an independent user community.

Therefore, traditional financial indicators cannot determine the value of Bitcoin. "The value of Bitcoin is determined purely by the emotions of the people who buy and sell it," Quigley said.

“Because sentiment is random and it goes up and down every day, if you try to trade based on daily sentiment, it’s really hard, so if it were me, I wouldn’t trade it,” Quigley shared. “If you’re going to buy Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency first, it should be a very, very small percentage of your net worth.”

“Also, never buy cryptocurrency unless you can hold it for five years,” he added. "It doesn't mean you actually have to hold it for five years, but you have to be able to hold it for five years."

More cryptocurrency quantitative trading firms will emerge after Bitcoin halving

Regarding institutional players in the industry, Quigley believes that more quantitative trading companies specializing in cryptocurrency investment will emerge after the Bitcoin halving due to the surge in trading volume.

“During the first halving in 2012, daily volume was probably less than $1 million,” Quigley said. “By the third halving in 2020, daily volume was $15 billion to $30 billion, and as high as $100 billion.”

“When you have this much volume and cryptocurrencies are traded 24 hours a day, seven days a week, there are price gaps that people can take advantage of,” he explained.

"The majority of bitcoin volume is in the bitcoin futures market, and if you can use leverage to trade it, you can make a lot, but you can also lose a lot," Quigley said. "But the futures market will always attract people who think they can make a lot of money by taking advantage of some price discrepancy."

*Friendly reminder: This article is for popular science purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice!