On March 31, Powell’s hawkish speech was revealed, and expectations of interest rate cuts were gradually retreated.
Bitcoin plummeted for two consecutive days on April 1st and 2nd, falling below the 30-day moving average support, falling from a maximum of 71k to 65k, a drop of more than 8%. Some people say that this is due to the weakening of interest rate cut expectations, the rise in U.S. bond yields, the rise in the U.S. dollar index, the fall in U.S. stocks, and the linkage of Bitcoin. However, gold is like a runaway horse, continuing to climb despite the weakening expectations of interest rate cuts, and has broken through $2280. What's the explanation? The only explanation, macroscopically, is smoke and mirrors. Let’s look at the changes in Bitcoin spot ETF data. ARKB had a net outflow of approximately US$87.5 million yesterday, and GBTC had a net outflow of US$81.9 million. According to on-chain monitoring data, the spot Bitcoin ETF ARKB launched by Ark Invest and 21Shares had a net outflow of approximately US$81.9 million yesterday. 87.5 million US dollars, a net outflow for the second consecutive day. Grayscale’s GBTC had a net outflow of US$81.9 million, and BITB had a net inflow of US$4.3 million. BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $150 million. HODL had a net inflow of $6 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC had a net inflow of $45 million. DEFI has a net inflow of US$1 million, Invesco's BTCO has no inflow/outflow, BRRR has a net inflow of US$4 million, and Valkyrie's BRRR has a net inflow of US$3.7 million. Net inflows so far on April 2 are $36 million. In fact, all ETFs except Grayscale, ARKB, and others were net inflows yesterday, and the rest of the ETFs were in the state of inflow. In terms of news, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for March will be released this Friday to decide whether to cut interest rates. In fact, these are all used by institutions. The purpose of smashing the market to attract money,
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Bitcoin hit the support level near 64,000 yesterday, and the daily closing line is also an entity's short K-line. At the same time, it also means that yesterday's selling was very strong, and today there was a small rebound at the opening. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the resistance level near 66,700 during the day. If it breaks through, we can continue to look at the 68,500-70,000 range. But if there is no good breakthrough in the short term, then the support point will still be tested. It is difficult for the daily level to effectively fall below the previous low of 60,000. If the non-agricultural and unemployment data released on Friday are positive, BTC will usher in a major counterattack. The 4-hour level is effectively supported by the 200-day moving average. For reference, the previous two times bottomed out at the 200-day moving average, and then started to rebound sharply.