The halving month is coming soon:
Unknowingly, the important halving month in our currency circle has arrived. For details, take a look at the picture below:
This bullish turn has clearly determined that it is the bottom of 60770, so if there is a chance for the 62000-60000 range in the future, I will consider adding it to the third level of the short position. Of course, if you don’t give this opportunity, then let’s wait and see when the pie is halved! Will there be a vacuum of short-term benefits after all the benefits are gone?
The short-term upward pressure is in the range of 72668-73788. Once it completely breaks through and does not fall below the 73788 position, it will go above 81000 and then seek the daily limit. The short-term downward support level is in the 68000-67100 range
Tell me about the inscriptions
Previous articles have said more than once that April belongs to Inscription. It can be seen from the recent performance of ordi that it has always wanted to perform, and major Inscriptions have also chosen April to go online.
Talk about ordi
The price of Audi 75 is just a Fibonacci technical resistance level. It is expected that it will not take long for breakthroughs to continue. Just looking at the triangle itself in the picture above, after the breakthrough, you can see the price around 84
More importantly, Ordi has been fluctuating widely for more than four months since it surged higher in December last year, and both the duration and amplitude of the fluctuations have been sufficient. I mentioned my opinion about Ordi before, thinking that 50 can only be achieved by inserting pins. It is a very good buying position when it falls to around 61
In fact, from the 3D level K-line, the closing line is kept above 61, and the lowest pin falls to around 55. As long as there is no leverage, the spot is at a low level to give enough time to buy
The top of Ordi's exchange rate appeared on January 2, and Ordi also reached a high of 92 on the same day, so January 2 was regarded as the end of a wave of rising prices. The exchange rate reached lows on March 19 and March 28, forming an obvious double-bottom structure, and has completed the breakthrough of the double-bottom. Therefore, it can be considered that the lowest point on March 28 is the beginning of a new round of market conditions. Real Ordi price reached lowest on March 19
Based on the judgment at the above time point, Ordi has completed a complete five-wave rise. Combined with the previously mentioned triangle breakthrough and the double-bottom structural breakthrough of the exchange rate, Ordi has probably completed its 2-wave correction and a new rise has begun.
When does copycat season come?
It is not the percentage of BTC returns that triggers the “alt season”, but its wealth effect. Since September 2023, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has increased by $941 billion, approaching $1 trillion
Most altcoins are relatively small and it doesn’t take much wealth within them to significantly increase their price. Currently, the market cap of altcoins as a whole, excluding ETH and major stablecoins, is $588 billion
What we need to pay close attention to is the inflow/outflow of CEX. Inflows to the three most popular CEXs since January 11:
OKX - $1 billion in inflows Robinhood - $263 million in inflows Binance - $247 million in inflows
Meanwhile, cumulative inflows into ETFs have reached more than $10 billion. It’s clear that ETFs are the new preferred way to buy and hold Bitcoin
Altcoins, on the other hand, do not have ETFs. First CEX, then DeFi, these are the two ways to get altcoins
Increased inflows into CEX = investors looking to buy altcoins
Not really. Simply put, this cycle adds one more step to the market. We go from CEXs → DEXs to ETFs → CEXs → DEXs, and this additional step will result in hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into CEXs. We just need some patience. Where are we heading?
If we have the same pattern as the last cycle, we will see altcoins (excluding BTC - ETH - USDT - USDC - DAI) having a market share of around 38% at the peak
With an overall cryptocurrency market capitalization of $7.8 trillion, altcoin market capitalization will be approximately $2.96 trillion, or 5.1 times the current value
The final phase will come when inflows into CEXs/DeFi equal or exceed those in ETFs
Next, let’s talk about the trend after the halving. How should we do it?
This round, I think the top of the pie is likely to be over 120,000 dollars, so I think if the pie exceeds 120,000 dollars, we need to consider the issue of batch shipment cycles to escape the top. More than 150,000 dollars is the maximum limit I think this round, and it is also the maximum value I know this round. To put it bluntly, when the subsequent market price exceeds 150,000 dollars, I will consider selling all the big pie positions and wait for the bear market.
Regarding Ethereum in the long term, I conservatively think that if the price is above 10,000 U, it should be shipped in batches, and if it is above 12,000 U, it can be cleared and wait for the bear market.
"When it's a bull market, everyone will buy it. If you can make a profit by buying it, who won't buy it? The most important thing in the bull market is selling. How to ensure that you sell, lock in profits, and be safe. Because the more you earn, the less you earn. In the end, you will make money. When the next bear market comes, you will have the funds to buy cheap chips at the bottom. On the other hand, when the real bear market comes, it is correct to endure it boldly, buy and buy happily, and be happy.
