In the past two days, ETFs have inflowed US$418 million and US$244 million respectively, but the market has not risen? what happened? So I looked at the data on the chain and discovered a shocking secret
After the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, I have been tracking the inflow and outflow data of ETF funds. Judging from past experience, net capital inflow will drive BTC to rise, and vice versa. In the past two days, the net capital inflow has exceeded 100 million. Why has the market not risen? I read You will know the data on the chain.
The buying power was completely overwhelmed by selling. The picture below shows the profits of long- and short-term holders on the chain. You can see that when BTC rose to US$73,000, investors began to sell in large quantities, with the highest profit in one day being US$2.6 billion. Among them, short-term holders (positions held for less than 155 days) made a profit of US$1.56 billion; among the selling forces, long-term holders are a force that cannot be ignored. Why do you say this? Let’s see next.
An interesting episode
The same sell-off occurred in the last bull market. The BTC price finally corrected by 25%. The current maximum correction of BTC is 15%. Do you think BTC will continue to fall?
Further analyzing the profits and losses of long-term and short-term holders, I found that as the market rose, long-term holders began to sell faster, which means that the selling power of the market shifted from (retail investors) short-term holders to (currency institutions). Long-term holders dominate
Long-term holders are called smart money by the market and make a lot of money in every bull market. If you feel that one or two cycles are not enough to explain anything, then let’s look at a longer cycle.
The figure below shows the BTC holdings of long-term holders and short-term holders in previous bull market cycles. It can be seen that in the bull market, long-term holders begin to reduce their holdings, while short-term holders increase their holdings, and the opposite is true in the bear market. , every round of bull market is like this, the life of leeks is too bitter, these data contain the tears of many retail investors, the joys and sorrows of many families
However, this bull market is different from the past. In addition to retail investors, short-term holders of this bull market also have traditional institutions (ETFs), and they are led by traditional institutions. If you don’t understand, you can read Gua Ge’s previous articles.
Things are about to change, and the market has entered a stage of competition between currency institutions and traditional institutions. The only thing I can do as a retail investor is to hold my position without moving, hide aside and tremble; is there any girl who takes pity on me and gives me a hug?
