The market as a whole is in a trend of shock and accumulation, with Bitcoin fluctuating at US$70,000 and Ethereum at US$3,600.
Altcoins as a whole are also fluctuating with the broader market, with the public chain sector and the Meme sector performing slightly stronger.
1. Market analysis
Yesterday, some friends in the core group asked me, which stage of the bull market are we currently in?
I believe that the market is already in the middle stage of the bull market. It has now passed the early incubation period and detection period and has entered the following period. At this stage, more and more investors begin to enter the market and funds begin to pour in, but the final frenzy period has not yet been reached.
Usually, during the frenzy period, the price of Bitcoin will rise rapidly, relatives and friends around will start to discuss Bitcoin, and grandparents will start to enter the market, and the market Fomo sentiment will reach its peak. But at present, the market has obviously not reached this stage yet.
The price of Bitcoin has increased nearly five times from the bottom of $15,000. If Bitcoin can rise to $200,000-300,000 in this bull market, there is still about three to four times of room for growth.
So overall we are now in the mid-term stage.
It is worth noting that there is an analysis agency called 10X Research, which recently released a chart predicting the price trend of Bitcoin.
They believe that unless Bitcoin falls below the critical support level of $68,330, it has the potential to break through $83,000 and even reach an all-time high of $100,000.
In addition, the capital inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF has exceeded US$10 billion, and the holdings have exceeded 400,000 bitcoins.
This number is significant because it exceeds the approximately 164,000 bitcoins produced each year through mining.
This massive influx of funds suggests that Bitcoin’s supply is limited, but demand for it is increasing.
In addition, the scale of the ETF market in the United States is very large, reaching 7 trillion US dollars. If only 1% of the funds flow into Bitcoin, it will be enough to double the market value of Bitcoin.
As the supply of Bitcoin gradually decreases and the Bitcoin balance on exchanges drops to a six-year low, the market demand for Bitcoin will further increase.
Coupled with the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, the halving will lead to an increase in Bitcoin prices because the halving directly reduces the supply of new Bitcoins.
Although the growth rate of Bitcoin prices has been decreasing after each halving in history, the gradual maturity of the crypto market and the inflow of funds from ETFs may bring new growth momentum to Bitcoin.
Now Bitcoin is more than just a savings value. With the promotion of new technologies such as Ordinals, BRC20 tokens, Bitcoin layer2, etc., the Bitcoin ecosystem will be more prosperous and the market demand for Bitcoin will further expand.
There are less than 2.4 million bitcoins in circulation, and only half of them are actually active. About 70% of bitcoins have not been moved in more than a year, which means that many people holding bitcoins are not in a hurry to sell.
All the above signs indicate that the amount of bitcoins circulating in the market has been decreasing, and most of the bitcoins are locked in cold wallets by whales and institutions.
Once all the bitcoins circulating in the market are bought out, whoever owns more bitcoins will have the pricing power.
For us ordinary retail investors, we just need to find ways to hoard more Bitcoin and not get off easily, so that we can reap the dividends of this round of industry growth.
If you haven’t gotten on board yet, once the market experiences a major correction, it will be your last chance to buy at the bottom.
If you think the current price is too high and you really can’t afford to buy, you can buy at the bottom by purchasing a Bitcoin mining machine, because owning a mining machine is equivalent to investing in Bitcoin at a price of US$20,000 every day.
2. Meme track
The overall performance of the Meme sector has remained strong recently, with wif, shib, and Slerf all rising to varying degrees.
Currently, the most popular projects in the Meme section are BOME, SLERF and WIF.
First, let’s take a look at BOME. BOME is a project founded by the mysterious crypto artist Darkfarms 1.
Darkfarms 1 hopes to realize a grand dream through the BOME project: to allow memes to be permanently stored on the blockchain, which will not only protect the memes from loss and tampering, but also allow people in the future to appreciate the creativity of this era.
BOME not only provides a platform for creating memes, but also uses blockchain technology to achieve decentralized storage of meme content, which makes it stand out among many Memecoin projects.
Moreover, BOME may have been controlled by some big investors, and Binance currently holds more than 50% of the chips, which means it will be easier to pull the price later.
Next up is SLERF, a latecomer that used a tree-rogue role. It quickly gained a foothold in the market through its innovation and community engagement.
Different from BOME's decentralized storage vision, SLERF focuses more on community building and participation, enhancing the attractiveness of its projects through interaction with users.
Slerf does a much better job of narratively, and it does it real justice since slerf didn't even have a pre-sale.
The market capitalizations of both BOME and SLERF have experienced rapid growth. BOME’s market capitalization once exceeded $1.5 billion, and although it has declined recently, it still remains above $700 million.
SLERF was not far behind, and its market value increased significantly in a short period of time, once approaching the market value of BOME.
In addition to Bome and SLERF, the market has also paid close attention to WIF recently. WIF is an emerging Meme coin based on the Solana chain. This project uses a naughty dog wearing a hat as its iconic image, bringing humor and community interactivity to the crypto market.
WIF was inspired by the Dogwifhat project, which emphasizes community participation and decentralized management, and hopes to give community members more say in the direction of the project.
Through summary, it is not difficult to find that these successful Meme coin projects have several key success factors: an attractive brand image, effective social media marketing strategy, close community interaction, huge wealth effect, and continuous innovation.
This not only attracts new investors and users, but also helps projects stay ahead in a competitive market.
The Solana chain has become the preferred platform for many Meme coin projects due to its efficiency and scalability. Compared with Ethereum, Solana can process more transactions at a lower cost, which is crucial for Meme coin projects that need to spread quickly and on a large scale.
The meme coin craze on Solana is somewhat similar to the ICO era on Ethereum. In this way, Solana has promoted the activity and growth of its ecosystem.
The charm of Meme coins lies in their emotional expression. They represent people’s direct expression of dissatisfaction with injustice, allowing participants to gain a sense of accomplishment and belonging while pursuing their own interests.
Memecoins have become a unique phenomenon in the Web3 world, converting attention directly into financial value.
I think Meme coins will become an indispensable part of the cryptocurrency world, because Meme coins play an important role in attracting new users to the currency circle and expanding the awareness of cryptocurrency, so this track may be hyped by retail investors and capital in the bull market.
But it should be noted that investing in meme coins is very risky and the ups and downs can be very volatile.
It is recommended to only focus on the top meme coin projects, such as pepe, doge, bome and other projects.
And you must strictly control your positions. The investment position in meme coins cannot exceed 10% of your total positions. Large positions should still be placed in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Don't put the cart before the horse.
If you cannot accept the drastic fluctuations of meme coins, it is recommended that you do not participate in such projects.
3. Summary
In general, the overall market is in a trend of oscillating and accumulating strength. Projects such as Sui and Aptos in the public chain sector, and Wif and Slerf in the Meme sector have seen a rotation of increases.
The market has now entered the mid-term stage of the bull market. It has passed the early incubation period and detection period and entered the follow-up period.
At this stage, more and more investors begin to enter the market and funds begin to pour in, but it has not yet reached the final frenzy period.
Usually during the frenzy period, the price of Bitcoin will rise rapidly, relatives and friends around you will start discussing Bitcoin, uncles and aunts will start to enter the market, and the market Fomo sentiment will reach its peak.
But at present, the market has obviously not reached this stage, and many people have not yet boarded this bull market.
Judging from the current trend, Bitcoin will most likely reach $100,000 in the second half of the year. What we need to do is to find ways to hoard more Bitcoin and not get off the train easily, so that we can reap the dividends of this round of industry growth.
If you think the current price is too high and you really can’t afford to buy, you can buy at the bottom by purchasing a Bitcoin mining machine, because owning a mining machine is equivalent to investing in Bitcoin at a price of US$20,000 every day.
In terms of operational strategy, 80% of the long-term positions can be held without moving. It is recommended to use this part of the positions to buy Bitcoin mining machines or Bitcoin spot. The goal is to hoard more Bitcoin for a long time so as to reap the dividends of the entire industry's growth.
Remember, every penny we make in the crypto market is ultimately aimed at increasing the number of Bitcoins we own.
We should now define the market based on Bitcoin, and no longer define the market based on fiat currency.
20% of the position can be used to buy leading projects in various tracks, or you can use it for short-term high-selling and low-buying, and stop profit in batches. In this way, you can attack or defend.
