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This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
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This week in review
This week from March 11 to March 18, Bingtang Orange’s highest was around $73,777 and its lowest was close to $64,533, with a fluctuation range of about 11.49%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large number of chips traded near about 65,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
analyze:
54000–58000 approximately 340,000 pieces;
59000–63000 approximately 480,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 54000~57000 in the short term is 90%;
Among them, the probability that it will not rise above 68,000 to 71,000 in the short term is 42%.
Important news
economic news
The one-year inflation rate in the United States in March is expected to be 3%, lower than the expected value of 3.10%, and unchanged from the previous value of 3.00%.
Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon said: The economy is more resilient than expected and is optimistic about 2024. The capital market is recovering. If the situation worsens, the Federal Reserve has room to relax monetary policy.
The annual PP1 rate in February was 1.6%, exceeding the expected value by 1.1% and the advanced value by 0.90%.
The monthly PP1 rate in February was 0.6%, exceeding the expected value by 0.30% and the advanced value by 0.30%.
The inflation indicator CPI released by the United States exceeded expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims fell short of expectations.
Fitch said: The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are expected to cut interest rates three times before the end of the year, with a total of 75 basis points.
BNP Paribas believes the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points before the end of December, in line with market pricing of 74 basis points.
Goldman Sachs said: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its March 20 interest rate meeting and begin an easing cycle at its June meeting.
Encrypted ecological news
U.S. Senators Sen Jack Reed and Senator Laphonza Butler wrote to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Director Gary Gensler, calling on the SEC not to approve other cryptocurrency ETFs.
Chainalysis data shows that the total income realized by cryptocurrency investors recovered to US$37 billion in 2023, a rebound from the US$127 billion loss in 2022.
South Africa will issue licenses to around 60 cryptocurrency platforms by the end of March, with the country’s Financial Sector Conduct Authority saying that more than 300 crypto asset providers are seeking approval.
The ETH Dencun upgrade is completed with the goal of improving the scalability and modularity of the Laver 2 network, enhancing the network’s security features, and improving overall usability.
ETH founder Vitalik Buterin said that the basic rollup expansion milestone has been achieved, and the next milestone may be the expiration of Walker trees and historical data.
Goldman Sachs Group, Bank of New York Mellon, Chicago Board Options Exchange and several other companies completed a series of pilot tests on the blockchain network connecting different banks and financial institutions. It is reported that this is the largest inter-chain experiment in the capital market. Participants Participants executed over 350 simulated transactions on the blockchain, involving tokenized assets, digital cash, repos, securities lending and margin management
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently at, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the emergence of some directions and the possibility of certain events occurring under certain conditions
long term insights
Illiquid Supply (Whale) Positions
On-chain spot transaction volume on exchanges
Spot accumulation transaction position
(Figure below: Illiquid supply (whale) position)
Better defined as an illiquid whale.
Some of the illiquid whales have reduced their holdings before, which is somewhat related to Grayscale ETF.
There has been a return to accumulation in the near future, and their positions and actions play a decisive part.
(The picture below shows the transaction volume of on-chain spot on the exchange)
The significant increase in transaction volume on the exchange chain is generally related to the large fluctuations in market prices.
Historically, most of them are related to the downward fluctuation of the market, and this data is generally used as a conditional filter.
Can be used to filter out more disguised conditions.
(The picture below shows accumulated spot trading positions)
Judging from the superposition of the two data, the previous large fluctuations were related to selling pressure within the market, which has occurred many times at high levels in the past.
Now the market is turning from selling pressure to accumulation.
This represents that the market has returned to accumulation after experiencing a short-term profit landing, or from a longer-term perspective, continues to maintain accumulation.
mid-term exploration
Realized holding ratio
Highly weighted selling pressure quarterly conditions
ETH market share status
(The picture below shows the realized holding ratio)
This model is used to observe the holding ratio of short-term participants. From the current situation,
There are more short-term participants,
Meanwhile, there are now signs of a slight slowdown.
(The picture below shows high-weighted selling pressure on the quarterly moving average)
As a greater proportion of liquidity enters the market, the overall magnitude of high-weighted selling pressure also increases.
Unlike 2023, the current rise is faster.
After more magnitude of selling pressure is exerted, it will further test the overall ability of the market to bear.
(The picture below shows the proportion of ETH in the market)
Observe the proportion of ETH in the market,
According to the observed general rules, when the fluctuations in the market are large, there will usually be signs of ETH dominance.
The structure of the venue will also change by then.
Judging from the current status, the market may be slightly unstable under the dominance of ETH.
A stable state requires waiting for the proportion of ETH to decline and BTC to regain its dominant position.
short term observation
Derivatives risk coefficient
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives trading volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer amount
Add new addresses and active addresses
Bingtang Orange Exchange Net Position
Auntai exchange net position
High weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net position
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk coefficient is in the neutral zone, and the risk of derivatives is moderate.
(The figure below shows the risk coefficient of derivatives)
After a series of short squeezes, the market is experiencing a correction this week. Last week, it was mentioned that it is very easy to form a long-short double explosion situation. This week, the risk of derivatives has reached the neutral zone, and it is still possible for derivatives to have a long-short double explosion. In addition, the space for long squeeze is limited.
(The chart below shows the option transaction ratio)
The bearish protection ratio levels remain elevated. Options trading volume fell slightly.
(The figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Last week, it was mentioned that a change was imminent, and the market subsequently experienced a correction. The trading volume of derivatives this week is at a low level after the long squeeze, and the low level means that the market is close to changing again.
(Figure below: option implied volatility)
Implied volatility is unchanged from last week in the short term.
Emotional state rating: FOMO
(The figure below shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
Last week, the cost of short-term holders was 50K, and now it has reached 53K. Even during the correction, short-term holder costs are still rising and market sentiment is still FOMO. The positive sentiment indicator has dropped slightly, but it also means that there is enough room for the next change.
(The picture below shows the new address and active address)
New and active addresses are at medium to high levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure ratings: The overall situation is a massive outflow accumulation, and the selling pressure is low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
The big pie is currently in a state of accumulation of massive outflows, and the net position in the exchange continues to decline.
(The figure below shows the net position of the E-Pacific Exchange)
There was a large inflow of the second cake this week, and there was a differentiation between the second cake and the big cake.
(The picture below shows high weight selling pressure)
High-weighted selling pressure has now eased.
Purchasing Power Rating: Compared with last week’s global purchasing power dropped moderately, the purchasing power of stablecoins dropped slightly.
(Figure below shows the status of global purchasing power)
There was a moderate decline in global purchasing power this week, but overall, even if it fell by half compared to before, the level of purchasing power is still higher than the level in the previous year. It will have an impact on current prices, but it won't have a particularly big impact.
(Figure below: USDT exchange net position)
The overall net position of USDT exchanges decreased slightly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 64,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(Coinbase off-chain data in the picture below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 60000, 62000, and 64000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 73000, 75000, and 76000.
(Figure below: Binance off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 60000, 62000, and 65000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 70000, 71000, 72000, and 74000.
(Picture below: Bitfinex off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 60,000 and 64,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 74000 and 75000.
This week’s summary:
WTR public real offer section:
Starting from February, the actual status of funds will be disclosed every month.
Strategy: Robust strategy.
Initial capital amount: US$240,000.
Current funding: US$318,000.
Yield: 32.5%; historical maximum drawdown: about 5%.
Small currency holdings:
RNDR、CKB、WLD、LINK
News summary:
The entire international capital market was relatively active, choosing to ignore the negative factors and began to initially turn strong.
Almost all major players have bet or determined on the conditions for cutting interest rates and releasing funds in the second half of this year.
In a bull market, the market will accelerate the correction during the upward breakthrough, which is due to the fear of market participants worrying about gains and losses, and the panic is bad. When this situation is serious, the market will choose to make large and rapid adjustments.
Long-term insights on the chain:
Illiquid whales return to increase their holdings;
More groups in the market have turned from profit-taking to accumulation.
Market setting the tone:
More groups are still accumulating.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The number of short-term participants is relatively large, and the current rise is slowing down;
High-weighted selling pressure increases;
ETH accounts for a relatively high proportion.
Market setting the tone:
Adjustment
The current proportion of ETH is relatively high, and the stability of the disk may need to be adjusted.
Short-term observations on the chain:
The risk coefficient is in the neutral zone, and the risk of derivatives is moderate.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a medium to high level.
Market Sentiment State Rating: FOMO.
The overall net position of the exchange shows a large outflow and accumulation state, and the selling pressure is low.
Compared with the moderate decline in global purchasing power last week, the purchasing power of stablecoins has declined slightly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 64,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
The probability of not falling below 54,000~57,000 in the short term is 90%; the probability of not falling below 68,000~71,000 in the short term is 42%.
Market setting the tone:
The overall positive sentiment in the market has declined, but it is still in a FOMO atmosphere. Short-term holders continue to climb to around 53K, and even if there is an extreme downward trend, the decline will be limited. The risk of large downward market fluctuations is expected to be extremely low this week, and two-way liquidation of derivatives may occur.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be careful to view and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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