We emphasize once again that we are currently in a strong FOMO phase (brief liquidity imbalance). Economic data, including API, and even the Fed delaying interest rate cuts, are unlikely to have a significant impact on the trend—only the Black Swan!
Global BTC 10:00 (GMT+8) Data
(AI Little Black)
Futures Long-Short Ratio: 71%:29% (Partial cautious longs unwinding)
Spot Buying-Selling Ratio: 59%:41% (Institutions buying, retail investors observing)
BTC: Oscillating between 70,300 and 75,600, awaiting direction.
ETH: Post-Cancun upgrade, a brief positive trend upward to 4,400. Be cautious of a downward correction post-upgrade, targeting 3,660. If ETH stabilizes this week, it may surge towards 5,000.
Other currencies: Post-Cancun upgrade, market hotspots will shift. Keep an eye on Lay2 and inscriptions; cautious outlook for memes.
Key Points: Only a few black swans remain before the halving.
A series of crises in U.S. community banks, causing a 10-20% decline in the crypto market; probability less than 30%.
CZ, BN fails to reach a settlement with U.S. judiciary. CZ faces unexpected imprisonment or a global market ban on BN, resulting in a 20-30% decline; probability less than 15%.
The Fed unexpectedly implements a strong interest rate hike in March, leading to a comprehensive 30-50% decline in risk assets; probability less than 5%.
#BTC #Ethereum(ETH) #TradeNTell #TradeNTell。 #tradingStrategy
