This week, we have witnessed great volatility as the market approaches all-time highs. Initially, the price encountered strong resistance from $69,000 and fell to $60,000, but then recovered and is currently fluctuating below $70,000. Looking ahead to the next week, the market may be difficult to trade as momentum weakens and a clear break above $70,000 has not yet been achieved.
Any pullback from now on would be an excellent buying opportunity ahead of the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in mid-April. We still have five weeks to prepare.
There are two main scenarios to watch this week:
If the all-time high of $69,000 can be broken strongly, we are expected to surpass $70,000 completely. The key to continued growth is whether the daily closing price can stand above $70,000; if not, it is not advisable to go long. Target prices above this level include $71,700 and $74,600, but since we are in the price discovery phase, it may be difficult to use the Fibonacci sequence to set targets
A break below the monthly open of $67,300 could signal a pullback to the main trading range, triggering some decline. Key supports on the way down are $66,250, $64,850, and $62,400.
As Bitcoin hit $70,000, Ethereum showed good confluence with Bitcoin at $4,000, further strengthening confidence in the market top. With the sell-off that began on Sunday, I expect to see an acceleration of the decline this week.
The uptrend of Ethereum from the lowest point is very impressive. I think a correction may be needed, which may happen in the next two weeks. With the restart of the Ethereum ecosystem and the continuous upgrade of infrastructure, Ethereum is gaining more and more attention.
The Dencun upgrade is expected to take place this week and investors are advised to pay close attention.
Currently, multiple Ethereum spot ETF applications are in progress, but these applications have been delayed because the SEC is not ready for listing. We expect to hear more news on this in May, when the ETF may be officially announced.
This week's highlights include:
Look for a breakout of $4,000, which should coincide with Bitcoin’s move to $70,000. Such a breakout would mark a market-wide breakout and could accelerate Ethereum’s march toward its all-time high. Key levels above this are $4,130 and $4,250.
If resistance is encountered at $4,000, I will look for a break below $3,800 as the first sign of weakness. A break below this level will open up the market to $3,675 and $3,560. This would be a healthy correction and is possible in the coming weeks.
Funding rates for major cryptocurrencies on major exchanges were very high this week, indicating that altcoins are competing heavily against Bitcoin.
In particular, MATIC, SOL, ADA, and some smaller altcoins have seen abnormal funding rates. Monitoring these funding rates this week will help identify which coins have good investment potential.
For those who are not familiar with the funding rate, in simple terms, if the funding rate is negative, it means that investors holding short positions need to pay fees to investors holding long positions to maintain their positions; if the funding rate is positive, then on the contrary, investors holding long positions need to pay investors holding short positions.
Funding rate (e.g. 0.01%) refers to a percentage rate applied to your position, which is deducted from or added to your account at the time of the swap and distributed to your counterparty.
During periods of high interest in opening a position, higher funding rates can lead to price reversals. Therefore, keeping an eye on funding rates is an important strategy for traders to use to help predict and take advantage of market price movements. Do not ignore the impact of funding rates in your chart analysis.
