In the past three months, although the "violent bull market" that retail investors are looking forward to has not yet arrived, during its volatile recovery, small currencies have set off a carnival of 10 times. The cryptocurrency market, which has been in a bear market for nearly two years, has not seen any growth for a long time. #TRB , #GAS , #BLZ ..., Binance's small-cap currencies seem to have accurately predicted the benefits of BTC spot ETF and the BRC20 hot spot that followed, and launched a wave of violent market in advance.

TRB has dominated the Binance Square list with a nearly 20-fold increase in two months, extremely high fees for perpetual contracts for an extremely long time, and no "pin-poke" pullback during the rise, and is regarded as "the most classic trade in 2023."

Coincidentally, #ARK , which has soared 3 times since the end of October, also has many characteristics of the early TRB rise. From the analysis of on-chain data, it is even more obvious, and the frequent appearance of whales in it inevitably makes people associate it with the subsequent trend.

Phase 1: Binance whales appear and large arbitrageurs emerge.

According to CMC data, at the end of October 2023, the total number of ARKs in UPBIT's cold and hot wallets accounted for more than 50% of the total ARK issuance, while Binance accounted for only about 20%. The price of Binance has risen significantly since October 29, and has always been at a premium to UPBIT, followed by a large migration of ARK stocks. In less than half a month, the proportion of UPBIT wallets fell by more than 30%, while the proportion of Binance increased accordingly, becoming the largest ARK concentration in the entire network.

During this process, Binance saw strong buying. According to data detection, from October 29 to October 31, Binance ARK spot transactions exceeded 400 million in just three days, equivalent to more than 200% of the total issuance, and the turnover was extremely active. Several whale accounts net bought more than 50 million ARKs during this period, which was the absolute force driving the market.

The price difference between UPBIT and Binance also provides an excellent opportunity for large arbitrageurs. The on-chain data shows that the wallet address

AMMwxQZGYLEGwSQyy3Q6nmViTD36WCnTQ4

ANapGk9mbnMZtVhyiNrKpWL6ZcUZqg1xyT

There were frequent large-value transfers between the two exchanges, with deposits and withdrawals accounting for more than 40% at one point, taking most of the profits from exchange arbitrage in this market.

The second stage: large investors withdraw their money and voting surges.

As the whales' first-phase buying slowed down, a large amount of ARK outflows occurred on Binance. ARKSCAN shows that the following five whale addresses have withdrawn more than 40 million ARKs, worth more than 60 million US dollars, accounting for 22.5% of the total supply. At present, these addresses still only have inflows but no outflows, and the hoarding behavior is obvious.

AZQydzyd9GauPFY9VetpPqkvB4Ka2kPZ7T

AQ3fq7zp4QZjTQkhmXQsdvNTY5mCLgqKEy

AS9udo7QPuKv3r3HEo46McWeCkAC63XgQT

AMTjcfENnH4fr32sneYUesLRd9GHEXcjNm

AHd3DPCtsFwAoVdn3NGvnZ5ENvkeBAkzVn

At the same time, ARK of the DPOS mechanism has a voting mechanism. Since the rise of the sentiment, the number of pledged votes in the entire network has increased rapidly. From November 20 to 25 alone, the number of votes quickly climbed from less than 40 million to more than 61 million, with more than 20 million ARKs newly voted, an increase of more than 50%, and the voting rate of the entire network reached 36%, resulting in a further reduction in the actual circulation of ARK.

Various signs indicate that this round of ARK market was initiated by whales on Binance, resulting in most of the stock of UPBIT being transferred to Binance. After that, the whales withdrew the money to cold wallets for storage; the voting rate of the entire ARK network has also risen rapidly recently, locking in actual liquidity. A series of operations reminds people of the large-scale buying of TRB during the first wave of TRB rise on Binance, large deposits in cold wallets, and no pin callbacks and other similar situations. Combined with the fact that ARK is an old project before 2017, it was first launched in South Korea, which has a "strong gambling nature", the tokens are already fully circulated, its cross-chain concept may resonate with the L2 hot spot, and gate & Binance were both launched some time ago, it has the "physique" to be hyped up in this round of Binance's small-cap coins.

Currently, ARK is trading sideways around 1.6U after surging 3 times. Let us wait and see whether it can continue the myth of TRB.