Written by Mike, Foresight Research
A. Market View
1. Macro liquidity
Monetary liquidity improved. The core PCE in the fourth quarter of the United States was revised up to 2.1%, which exceeded expectations, highlighting that inflationary pressures still exist. Investors' expectations for the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts continued to weaken, believing that the rate cut will only be 75 basis points in 24 years. US stocks continued to strengthen, and the financial reports of technology companies led by Nvidia once again supported the rise, with no signs of a serious correction. The crypto market soared, and US spot ETFs received large inflows for several consecutive days.
2. Market conditions
The top 100 companies with the highest market capitalization:
This week, BTC surged to a record high, and began to suck blood. BTC's dominance rate increased to a recent historical high of 55%, and only 30% of the altcoins in the market outperformed BTC. The market focus is mainly on AI and meme, with institutions hyping AI and retail investors hyping meme.
1. PEPE: meme is in the interests of large exchanges and helps attract new users. In the last round, the overall market value of the meme sector accounted for 5%. If this round is conservatively set at 2%, it can reach at least 120 billion US dollars. DOGE and SHIB are in a defensive position. At present, it seems that PEPE, which has been listed on a large exchange, has great potential. 2. AR: It was originally the leader in the permanent storage track and transformed into the public chain L1 that is the killer of ETH. Recently, the public test network Arweave AO was released to design the computing layer for AI. 3. COTI: It was originally a payment project in 2017, and the team is from Israel. Recently, it has transformed into the privacy version of ETH L2, which has fully homomorphic encryption technology and claims to be far better than Fhenix invested by Multicoin Capital. The market value is hundreds of millions of dollars, and it has a higher profit and loss ratio compared with ZK L2, which has a market value of tens of billions of dollars.
3. BTC market
1) On-chain data
New spot ETF products have created a new source of demand for BTC. More than 90,000 BTC of net flows have flowed into ETFs. These inflows amount to $6 billion and bring the total size of ETFs to $40 billion.
The market value of stablecoins increased by 2% month-on-month, continuing its upward trend.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV falls below the key level of 1, and the holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 2.67, entering the middle stage.
Institutional crypto investment products have seen net inflows for four consecutive weeks, exceeding $6 billion year-to-date.
2) Futures market
Futures funding rate: This week, the rate rose rapidly to a one-year high, and the market sentiment was fomo. The rate was 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which was the short-term top of the market; the rate was -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, which was the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures open interest: BTC open interest surged this week, with both volume and price rising.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.1, market sentiment is normal. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, above 2.0 is more greedy. Long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and its reference value is weakened.
3) Spot market
BTC surged and approached the previous high of 69,000, with six consecutive positive monthly lines. Funds from spot ETFs continued to flow in, and many mainstream US institutions passively made strategic allocations. In the short term, only altcoins with AI and meme narratives can outperform BTC, while the other 70% of altcoins basically underperform.
B. Market Data
1. Total locked-up amount of public chains
2. TVL Proportion of Each Public Chain
This week, the total TVL is 92.5 billion US dollars, an overall increase of 17.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 23.8%. BTC has been advancing by leaps and bounds and directly broke through the 60,000 position, directly approaching the historical high. This month, the TVL of mainstream public chains has all risen sharply, and this week, the TVL of mainstream public chains has also risen. This week, the ETH chain rose by 4%, the TRON chain and the ARB chain rose by about 9%, the BSC chain and the SOLANA chain both rose by 15%, and the BTC chain soared by as much as 38%. The ETH chain has soared by nearly 60% in the past month, and the total TVL has reached 52.6b, which is five times that of the second place.
3. Locked Amount of Each Chain Protocol
1) ETH locked amount
2) BSC locked amount
3) Polygon locked-up amount
4) Arbitrum locked amount
5) Optimism locked amount
6) Base lock-up amount
7) Solana locked amount
4. Changes in NFT Market Data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT market situation
3) NFT trading market share
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
The NFT market fell slightly this week, and the floor prices of blue-chip projects in the NFT market rose and fell this week. Pandora rose 1.5%, BAYC rose 1.8%, MAYC fell less than 1%, Milady rose 13%, and Azuki fell 5.4%. The transaction volume of the NFT market has increased slightly compared with last week, and Pandora's transaction volume still occupies the top position. It is worth noting that the cumulative number of users who purchased NFTs for the first time has exceeded the highest level in the past three months, and the overall NFT market continues to be sluggish.
V. Latest project financing situation
6. Post-investment dynamics
1) ORA — Verifiable Oracle Protocol
ORA (formerly Hyper Oracle) releases the on-chain Optimistic Privacy AI solution "opp/ai" ORA releases the on-chain Optimistic Privacy AI solution "opp/ai".
Officials said that opp/ai combines zkML (Zero Knowledge Machine Learning) and opML (Optimistic Machine Learning), and has the privacy and performance of both. In the test, opp/ai can improve the performance of zkML by 2-5 times while retaining its privacy and decentralization characteristics. In addition, opp/ai has the ability to integrate any zkML solution, which means that the improvement and optimization of the zkML solution will directly affect opp/ai.
2) EthStorage — Infrastructure
EthStorage has been integrated with Celestia, a modular data availability network, to provide a complete long-term data availability (DA) solution for Ethereum L2/L3. Celestia's Blobstream bridges Celestia's modular DA layer to Ethereum, and EthStorage, powered by its original time-sampled data availability proof algorithm, will serve as a permanent data storage solution for DA BLOBs. Celestia and EthStorage have jointly created a Rollup with a high-throughput, programmable dynamic storage interface. This feature not only provides a long-term DA solution for Rollups, but will also support new full-chain applications, including full-chain games, decentralized social networks, and on-chain AI applications.
3）Merlin — BTC L2
Within 14 days of launching the staking activity this month, Merlin Chain’s total TVL has reached $1.97 billion, surpassing Blast, which was launched in November last year. On the 26th of this month, the total value of NFTs in the Merlin Chain ecosystem exceeded $420 million, making it the public chain project with the highest NFT market value besides Ethereum. On February 5, Merlin Chain announced the completion of financing, with 24 institutions including OKX Ventures, ABCDE, Foresight Ventures, and Arkstream Capital participating.
